3533 Hilts Trl · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$214,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-196/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morningside El (math 44% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 810 students, 63% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 31% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,065 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,499
• List price: $214,999
• Delta: 0.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,399
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-58,715
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $212,641

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $58	+0% $-16	+5% $-91	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-91	+0% $-16	+5% $59	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $38	base $-16	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	19d	1	0.08mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	16d	1	0.17mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	45d	1	0.25mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	25d	1	0.26mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	3d	1	0.28mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$2,095	$1.37	0d	129	0.28mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	25d	1	0.29mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	0d	1	0.29mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	45d	1	0.29mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	45d	1	0.29mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	6d	1	0.29mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	45d	1	0.36mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	16d	1	0.37mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	25d	1	0.39mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	0d	1	0.39mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	6d	1	0.39mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	0d	1	0.40mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	45d	1	0.40mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	18d	1	0.40mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	0.41mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.41mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	45d	1	0.43mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	45d	1	0.44mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	12d	1	0.47mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	0.54mi
3943 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,695	$1.10	0d	1	0.57mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	6d	1	0.57mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	45d	1	0.63mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	45d	1	0.67mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	0d	1	0.68mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.76mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	0d	1	0.77mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	5d	1	0.77mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	6d	1	0.79mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	45d	1	0.80mi
2764 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2764 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	0.81mi
2060 Meadow Pipit New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1917	$1,950	$1.02	6d	1	0.81mi
1915 Chiffchaff New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	25d	1	0.83mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 1044 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	0d	1	0.83mi
2754 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 2754 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,295	$1.10	45d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $214,999 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,999 Price Change 96 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   listed $219,999 Active 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

4. 2026-05-07
   price $239,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-17
   price $241,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-02-24
   listed $286,999 New 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $219,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $241,999 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Listed $286,999 LERA

Property tax history

-17.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $241 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.