11614 19th St NE · St. Michael, MN 55376

$116,196

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,211 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Riverview Preserve is a master-planned new home community in Saint Michael, MN, offering a scenic setting near the Crow River with convenient access to Highway 94 and downtown Saint Michael. The southeast St. Michael location balances everyday convenience with natural surroundings, making it easy to commute while enjoying a quieter pace close to home. The community features a mix of single-family homes and villas designed to suit a variety of lifestyles. Floorplans range from spacious two-story layouts to main-level living designs, with open concepts, flexible spaces, and options that support growing families, first-time buyers, or those looking to simplify. Residents are surrounded by outd

Key facts

• Near crow river
• Convenient access
• Scenic setting

Tags

• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• SCENIC SETTING
• NEAR CROW RIVER
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• OUTDOOR FOCUSED AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available
• Financial info: Listed as Active

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction spec)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,211

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Taylor II plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $116k).
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $803 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $116,196

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.99%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $64,082
• Equity at exit: $17,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $162,674
• Equity at exit: $10,047

Cash invested: $32,535 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55376

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$609
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,743/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $1,301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $116,196

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,381	-5% $1,341	+0% $1,301	+5% $1,261	+10% $1,221
Rent	-10% $1,091	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,301	+5% $1,406	+10% $1,512
Rate	-1.0pp $1,360	-0.5pp $1,331	base $1,301	+0.5pp $1,271	+1.0pp $1,240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,049
• Closing costs: $3,486
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2948 Kepler Ave NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,800	$1.17	0d	1	1.15mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,509
• − Property taxes: −$1,743
• − Insurance: −$581
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,557
• − Management: −$2,557
• − Depreciation: −$3,380
• Taxable income: $14,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,512
• After-tax cash flow: $12,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 19,317
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,106
• Household income: $131,266
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.03%
• Current HPI: 229.5977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B