28 Lakeway St · Panorama Village, TX 77304

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom townhouse. It features a great loft area that can be used as a third bedroom. This lovely home offers an open concept with a comfortable living area perfect for relaxing after a long day. The kitchen is right off the living room with plenty of counter and cabinet space. Enjoy the convenience of being just a short distance away from I45, making your daily commute a breeze. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this lovely townhouse your new home!

Key facts

• Open concept
• Loft area
• $150 HOA

Tags

• LOFT AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT
• KITCHEN WITH COUNTER SPACE
• SHORT DISTANCE TO I45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.9% in Panorama Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#851 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $125k implies a 1075% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.74%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,789
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,885
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $611	+0% $576	+5% $540	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $499	+0% $576	+5% $653	+10% $730
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $608	base $576	+0.5pp $543	+1.0pp $510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1560 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,045	$2.35	21d	5	0.72mi
1510 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,248	$2.06	0d	17	0.83mi
1575 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,786	$1.91	0d	16	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    historical $1,000
16. 2026-03-16
    price $1,000
17. 2026-01-29
    price $125,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom townhouse. It features a great loft area that can be used as a third bedroom. This lovely home offers an open concept with a comfortable living area perfect for relaxing after a long day. The kitchen is right off the living room with plenty of counter and cabinet space. Enjoy the convenience of being just a short distance away from I45, making your daily commute a breeze. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this lovely townhouse your new home!

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $130,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom townhouse. It features a great loft area that can be used as a third bedroom. This lovely home offers an open concept with a comfortable living area perfect for relaxing after a long day. The kitchen is right off the living room with plenty of counter and cabinet space. Enjoy the convenience of being just a short distance away from I45, making your daily commute a breeze. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this lovely townhouse your new home!

19. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,250
20. 2023-06-29
    historical
21. 2021-07-21
    listed $1,200 Active
22. 2021-07-21
    historical
23. 2020-11-10
    soldstatus
24. 2020-11-10
    soldstatus
25. 2007-03-08
    soldstatus
26. 2006-08-14
    historical
27. 2005-01-18
    listed $27,350
28. 2004-02-11
    soldstatus
29. 2004-02-11
    soldstatus
30. 2003-03-26
    historical
31. 2003-01-30
    listed $39,990
32. 2002-02-08
    historical
33. 2001-12-26
    listed $44,900
34. 1997-12-04
    soldstatus $10,640

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 75.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $5,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Panorama Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #851
• US rank: #15333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panorama Village, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-90.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-21 Listed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2020-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-01-18 Listed $27,350 HARMLS
• 2004-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-01-30 Listed $39,990 HARMLS
• 2002-02-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-12-26 Listed $44,900 HARMLS
• 1997-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,640 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.