1617 Liberty St · Erie, PA 16502

$71,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1882 6,199 sqft lot Est $131k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting single-story home offers comfortable and convenient living with plenty of potential to make it your own. Featuring three well-sized bedrooms and one full bath, the layout is both practical and functional. A spacious, large eat-in kitchen provides the perfect setting for daily meals or entertaining, with ample room for a dining table. The enclosed porch adds extra living space, ideal for relaxing with a morning coffee or enjoying the changing seasons. Outside, the fenced yard offers privacy and room for pets, play, or gardening, while the shed provides additional storage for tools and equipment. Off-street parking ensures convenience and ease year-round. Nestled in a quiet neig

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Eat-in kitchen
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $497 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.90%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1617 Liberty St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,332 (0%)	1mo	$76,000	$57	99
1017 W 20th St	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,370 (+3%)	2mo	$163,000	$119	72
518 W 19th St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+10%)	1mo	$109,900	$75	66
1057 W 20th Sts	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,403 (+5%)	1mo	$149,000	$106	66
1117 W 21st St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-6%)	1mo	$118,900	$95	64
1145 W 25th St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$98	64
2618 Hazel St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,226 (-8%)	1mo	$123,450	$101	56
1229 Brown Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-6%)	2mo	$51,500	$41	53
1053 W 20th St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+15%)	1mo	$150,000	$98	52
215 W 20th St	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-6%)	2mo	$125,000	$100	51
816 W 28th St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-12%)	1mo	$159,900	$136	46
933 W 27th St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,504 (+13%)	2mo	$132,500	$88	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $17,090
• Equity at exit: $10,721

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $51,871
• Equity at exit: $6,217

Cash invested: $20,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$377
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,311/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $71,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,975
• Closing costs: $2,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	0.07mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	44d	1	0.56mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.71mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.79mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	0.82mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	0.84mi
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	44d	1	0.89mi
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	1.01mi
305 Cascade St Unit 305 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	1.03mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	1.21mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	1.27mi
16 W 5th St Apt 504 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1072	$2,499	$2.33	44d	1	1.29mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	44d	1	1.34mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $71,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,028
• − Property taxes: −$1,311
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,092
• Taxable income: $4,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $4,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $71,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,311 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.