7967 Vaughan Dr · Mechanicsville, VA 23111

$324,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.42 ac lot Est $354k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick Rancher with 3 bedrooms, 1 and 1/2 baths. Eat-in kitchen, laundry room, hardwood floors throughout except for Kitchen and baths. New Paint throughout. Large Lot. Located in the heart of Mechanicsville with easy access to shopping, schools and interstates.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Large lot
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof; Brick veneer and frame construction
• Construction: Built (actual year recorded); Brick veneer and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain-link fence around back yard; 0.42-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower; One half bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-511/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Meadow Elementary (math 80% / reading 84%, grade A+, #106 of 1,108 statewide, top 11%, 569 students, 36% FRL); Bell Creek Middle (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A, #42 of 342 statewide, top 13%, 934 students, 37% FRL); Mechanicsville High (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A-, #71 of 319 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 15% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $325k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,952 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,200
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8029 Woodbridge Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	8mo	$337,500	$223	57
6437 Lantana Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	0mo	$375,000	$288	52
8087 Kiwi Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-5%)	17mo	$337,500	$253	48
8079 Castle Grove Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	12mo	$475,000	$297	47
8064 Kiwi Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	21mo	$321,000	$246	42
6414 Wedgewood Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,208 (-14%)	3mo	$332,500	$275	41
6436 Cardinal Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	18mo	$325,000	$207	39
7360 Wren Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+12%)	23mo	$305,000	$194	36
8162 Tiffany Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+8%)	13mo	$325,000	$215	34
8080 Foxlair Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-9%)	16mo	$340,000	$267	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-55,455
• Equity at exit: $48,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,136
• Equity at exit: $28,096

Cash invested: $90,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23111

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,417/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,583

Max offer price $317,430

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $49	+0% $-43	+5% $-135	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-142	+0% $-43	+5% $57	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $40	base $-43	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,238
• Closing costs: $9,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7112 Mechanicsville Tpke Mechanicsville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	908	$2,319	$2.55	3d	11	0.75mi
6295 Banshire Dr Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,195	$1.83	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $324,950 Active
3. 1992-08-01
   soldstatus $84,000
4. 1989-12-01
   soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,417 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,202
• − Property taxes: −$2,417
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,428
• − Management: −$2,428
• − Depreciation: −$9,453
• Taxable loss: −$6,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicsville, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,070
• Household income: $98,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.34%
• Current HPI: 253.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+308.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $324,950 CVRMLS
• 1992-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,417 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.