125 E Valley Point Ln #1110 · Kimmel, PA 16625

$49,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 518 sqft · Condo · 363 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $96/sqft · at area comps Est $51k · at est. $258/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The perfect Blue Knob condo awaits you! Enjoy this first floor one bedroom unit while you use all of the amenities Blue Knob Resort has to offer. This condo has a private bedroom space and two bunks for guests or family. Condo will come with all appliances including stove, refrigerator and microwave. Also included is the living room television and a bed for the primary bedroom. This condo is close to the pools, hot tub and bar and grill. Enjoy hiking in the summer or skiing in the winter and so much more. Visit their website for more information on all of the fun attractions. $258 per month HOA fee includes pool usage, hot tub access, gym, tennis, pickle ball courts, garbage collection and all building and property maintenance.

Key facts

• Hot tub access
• Close to pools
• Two bunks for guests

Tags

• PRIVATE BEDROOM SPACE
• TWO BUNKS FOR GUESTS
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• CLOSE TO POOLS
• HOT TUB ACCESS
• BAR AND GRILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Claysburg-Kimmel SD (rural): math 37% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #284 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.04%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,954
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -2.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $26,505
• Equity at exit: $25,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $66,868
• Equity at exit: $42,781

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16625

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $258 · $3,096/yr
• Likely covers: trashpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 363 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 362 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 361 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 353 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 345 DOM
15. 2025-12-03
    price $49,900 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    The perfect Blue Knob condo awaits you! Enjoy this first floor one bedroom unit while you use all of the amenities Blue Knob Resort has to offer. This condo has a private bedroom space and two bunks for guests or family. Condo will come with all appliances including stove, refrigerator and microwave. Also included is the living room television and a bed for the primary bedroom. This condo is close to the pools, hot tub and bar and grill. Enjoy hiking in the summer or skiing in the winter and so much more. Visit their website for more information on all of the fun attractions. $258 per month HOA fee includes pool usage, hot tub access, gym, tennis, pickle ball courts, garbage collection and all building and property maintenance.

16. 2025-09-13
    price $59,900 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    The perfect Blue Knob condo awaits you! Enjoy this first floor one bedroom unit while you use all of the amenities Blue Knob Resort has to offer. This condo has a private bedroom space and two bunks for guests or family. Condo will come with all appliances including stove, refrigerator and microwave. Also included is the living room television and a bed for the primary bedroom. This condo is close to the pools, hot tub and bar and grill. Enjoy hiking in the summer or skiing in the winter and so much more. Visit their website for more information on all of the fun attractions. $258 per month HOA fee includes pool usage, hot tub access, gym, tennis, pickle ball courts, garbage collection and all building and property maintenance.

17. 2025-06-20
    listed $63,000 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    The perfect Blue Knob condo awaits you! Enjoy this first floor one bedroom unit while you use all of the amenities Blue Knob Resort has to offer. This condo has a private bedroom space and two bunks for guests or family. Condo will come with all appliances including stove, refrigerator and microwave. Also included is the living room television and a bed for the primary bedroom. This condo is close to the pools, hot tub and bar and grill. Enjoy hiking in the summer or skiing in the winter and so much more. Visit their website for more information on all of the fun attractions. $258 per month HOA fee includes pool usage, hot tub access, gym, tennis, pickle ball courts, garbage collection and all building and property maintenance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $2,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$666
• After-tax cash flow: $2,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This first-floor one-bedroom condo is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers amenities such as a tennis court and is located in a desirable area. Painting the interior walls and updating the kitchen appliances would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the appearance and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the appearance and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Claysburg-Kimmel SD
• NCES district ID: 4206120
• Math proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,568
• Composite: 37.68/100
• National rank: #4365
• State rank: #284 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kimmel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,551

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.20%
• Current HPI: 122.9552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $49,900 AHARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $59,900 AHARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $63,000 AHARMLS