1538 Gardenia Grove Ln · Houston, TX 77532

$257,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions association; Annual association fee of $2,300; Association fee covers maintenance of grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-723/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $241,925 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,490
• List price: $257,490
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18530 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	1mo	$238,990	$121	95
1619 Golden Iris Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$281,990	$138	89
18610 Periwinkle Brook Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$207,990	$102	88
1635 Golden Iris Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$281,990	$138	88
1714 Indigo Chase Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	0mo	$259,090	$133	81
1530 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	79
1734 Indigo Chase Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-4%)	1mo	$235,140	$124	79
1730 Indigo Chase Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-1%)	1mo	$309,990	$159	79
18506 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	1mo	$205,790	$117	74
18327 Ginger Glen Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-6%)	1mo	$308,990	$166	73
1511 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	1mo	$205,290	$119	73
1542 Marigold Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-12%)	1mo	$246,990	$143	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,052
• Equity at exit: $38,393

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-61,533
• Equity at exit: $22,263

Cash invested: $72,097 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $248,772

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $29	+0% $-60	+5% $-149	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-156	+0% $-60	+5% $35	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $5	base $-60	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,372
• Closing costs: $7,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	26d	1	0.03mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	26d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 619-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $257,490 Active 619-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,423
• − Property taxes: −$3,862
• − Insurance: −$1,287
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,491
• Taxable loss: −$4,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its value and appeal to buyers/tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures can improve the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures can improve the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $257,490 HARMLS