4649 Seneca St · West Seneca, NY 14224

$229,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1945 0.31 ac lot Est $323k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4649 Seneca Creek is a 3 bed 2 bath home in West Seneca. Completely renovated top to bottom!

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Custom molding
• Updated flooring

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• QUARTZITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• PREMIUM KITCHENAID APPLIANCES
• UPDATED FLOORING
• CUSTOM MOLDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Public utilities available
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 48 x 283

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen appliances negotiable
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Primary bedroom with private bath; Full basement; Family room; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $229,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Joann Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,388 (+2%)	9mo	$327,000	$236	62
261 Ehinger Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-0%)	8mo	$265,000	$194	58
142 Sky Hi Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,253 (-8%)	7mo	$283,000	$226	57
18 Joann Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,220 (-11%)	3mo	$345,000	$283	57
277 Woodward Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,430 (+4%)	3mo	$344,960	$241	52
1530 Center Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (-7%)	0mo	$295,000	$232	50
257 Ehinger Dr	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,456 (+6%)	11mo	$277,000	$190	50
386 Woodward Cres	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+11%)	7mo	$401,000	$263	48
22 Carol Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (-4%)	10mo	$370,000	$281	48
24 Lorry Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-11%)	6mo	$260,000	$214	36
16 Treehaven Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,562 (+14%)	8mo	$330,000	$211	35
272 Woodward Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-13%)	8mo	$350,000	$294	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,428
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $14,921
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14224

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $406	+0% $341	+5% $276	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $241	+0% $341	+5% $442	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $400	base $341	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 Reserve Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1144	$2,550	$2.23	2d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $229,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $229,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126
• After-tax cash flow: $3,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 41,101

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.03%
• Current HPI: 303.7523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+126.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $189,500 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Listed $189,500 WNYREIS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $189,500 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-05-20 Price Changed $81,500 WNYREIS
• 2020-05-11 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2020-05-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-05-01 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2020-04-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-04-22 Price Changed $91,500 WNYREIS
• 2020-03-24 Listed $101,700 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,462 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.