44 Carlton Ave · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Townhouse · 242 Days on market

Built 1953 3,049 sqft lot Est $124k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage in the fishing community of Lanark Village that was previously Army barracks. This unit was completely gutted and updated with tile flooring throughout, both front and rear porches enclosed, custom cabinets, tiled shower and fenced in back yard. Live full time, or use as a vacation rental. Currently tenant occupied.

Key facts

• Concrete block
• New hot water heater
• Very high ceilings

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• VERY HIGH CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CONCRETE BLOCK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Townhouse
• Construction: Built as a townhouse
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 3,049 sq ft

Interior

• Interior features: 500 total square feet

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $89,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$124,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.10%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,000
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44A-3 Carlton Ave	0.02mi	1/1.0	500 (0%)	23mo	$99,000	$198	80
10 Pine St #3	0.23mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	4mo	$63,000	$140	69
30-5 Heffernan Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (+10%)	1mo	$90,000	$164	68
24-5 E Pine St	0.04mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	17mo	$114,000	$253	67
12-3 Parker Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	525 (+5%)	13mo	$130,000	$248	66
24 E Pine St #5	0.08mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	17mo	$114,000	$253	66
29-4 Parker Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (+10%)	7mo	$132,900	$242	64
27-1 Parker Ave	0.19mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	13mo	$140,000	$311	64
27-1 Parker St	0.21mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	13mo	$140,000	$311	62
54-5 Parker Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	565 (+13%)	7mo	$104,500	$185	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $18,800
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $59,210
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $552	+0% $521	+5% $491	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $464	+0% $521	+5% $578	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $544	base $521	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 222 DOM
18. 2025-10-20
    listed $89,000 Active
19. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Adorable 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage in the fishing community of Lanark Village that was previously Army barracks. This unit was completely gutted and updated with tile flooring throughout, both front and rear porches enclosed, custom cabinets, tiled shower and fenced in back yard. Live full time, or use as a vacation rental. Currently tenant occupied.

20. 2022-08-24
    historical Active Under Contract 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Adorable 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage in the fishing community of Lanark Village that was previously Army barracks. This unit was completely gutted and updated with tile flooring throughout, both front and rear porches enclosed, custom cabinets, tiled shower and fenced in back yard. Live full time, or use as a vacation rental. Currently tenant occupied.

21. 2022-08-15
    listed $169,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Adorable 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage in the fishing community of Lanark Village that was previously Army barracks. This unit was completely gutted and updated with tile flooring throughout, both front and rear porches enclosed, custom cabinets, tiled shower and fenced in back yard. Live full time, or use as a vacation rental. Currently tenant occupied.

22. 2019-01-23
    soldstatus $68,500 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Price Reduced! Come home to Carrabelle- Beautiful sunsets, unlimited fishing opportunities, and white sand beaches! * No damage from Hurricane Michael * Updated 1 bedroom 1 bath (easily be 2 bedroom) END unit in Lanark Village. Partially furnished. Newer stainless refrigerator and electric stove. Updated screened porch, small yard area with good shade trees. Unit backs up to alley and wooded area. Very quiet. Located one block from the Lanark boat launch. 4 miles from Carrabelle. Easy access to St. George island and Dog island just across the bay.

23. 2003-03-03
    soldstatus $59,900
24. 2002-11-27
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $5,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Listed $89,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2022-08-30 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CATRS
• 2022-08-24 Contingent — CATRS
• 2022-08-15 Listed $169,000 CATRS
• 2019-01-23 Sold (MLS) $68,500 NFMLS
• 2003-03-03 Sold (MLS) $59,900 RAFGC
• 2002-11-27 Listed $59,900 RAFGC