4771 Deer Springs Dr · Bellemont, AZ 86015

$589,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2002 8,712 sqft lot Est $565k · at est. $72/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,560 square feet of comfortable living space and sits on a spacious corner lot. The 3-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, hobbies, gear, and more. Conveniently located just minutes from Flagstaff with easy access to I-40, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect blend of peaceful small-town living and proximity to city amenities. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the homes mature trees, and endless opportunities for hiking, mountain biking, off-roading, wildlife viewing, and exploring the natural beauty that surrounds Bellemont. With its desirable corner-lot location, new windows, exceptional outdoor spaces including the deck r

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Mature trees
• New windows

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• NEW WINDOWS
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• DECK READY FOR HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Flagstaff Meadows POA; HOA dues $72 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Corner lot location
• Construction: Slab foundation; Year built (source: County)
• Exterior features: Perimeter fencing; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Level topography; Mountain and forest views; Paved, public-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Double-pane windows; Wood-burning stove (fireplace)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-467/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $582k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $456k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $589k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $456,114 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $564,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11507 W Cove Crest Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-1%)	2mo	$560,000	$364	83
11780 Pegasus Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+0%)	2mo	$580,000	$372	78
11900 Hydrus Rd	0.29mi	3/2.2	1,640 (+5%)	5mo	$520,000	$317	71
11950 Pegasus Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+1%)	7mo	$569,000	$362	70
11600 W Cove Crest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-7%)	9mo	$545,000	$375	68
12361 Pegasus Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-1%)	3mo	$480,000	$312	68
11901 Pegasus Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+4%)	7mo	$520,000	$320	67
12235 Perseus Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+4%)	0mo	$520,000	$320	66
11721 Pegasus Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-11%)	3mo	$529,000	$381	57
4675 Cygnus Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-10%)	5mo	$509,900	$365	57
11798 Monarch Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,746 (+12%)	5mo	$613,000	$351	54
12311 Pegasus Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	1mo	$486,000	$352	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-95,877
• Equity at exit: $90,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-85,564
• Equity at exit: $55,027

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86015

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,832/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$72
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,610

Max offer price $582,126

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $128	+0% $-39	+5% $-206	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-219	+0% $-39	+5% $141	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $111	base $-39	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $72 · $864/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $589,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $589,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $589,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $589,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $589,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $589,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $589,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $589,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,832 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,887 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,055/yr (+$88/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$2,832
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,379
• − Management: −$4,379
• − HOA: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$10,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,590
• After-tax cash flow: $2,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bellemont

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellemont, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,447

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Native American 23% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 219.9374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+204.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $589,000 NAZMLS
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $193,769 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,832 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.