21303 Esterbrook Rd · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2022 1.01 ac lot $112/sqft · 35% below area Est $260k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for quiet living, this property on the East side of Ponchatoula may be just what you've been searching for! Situated on a full acre, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers plenty of space both inside and out, making it a great opportunity for a starter home. Located in flood zone X. This home features a functional layout with generous living space, ready for your personal touch. While it could use a little TLC, it has great potential to truly shine with a few updates.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer via treatment plant
• Home design: Single-story; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Raised foundation
• Exterior features: Outside city limits; Raised foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 9 rooms; Average condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 467% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.71%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,822
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -34.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,357
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,453
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21176 Brighton Cove Dr Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1705	$2,000	$1.17	44d	1	0.72mi
20276 Weinberger Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	0.97mi
39676 Gayle Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,700	$0.94	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $190,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    If you're looking for quiet living, this property on the East side of Ponchatoula may be just what you've been searching for! Situated on a full acre, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers plenty of space both inside and out, making it a great opportunity for a starter home. Located in flood zone X. This home features a functional layout with generous living space, ready for your personal touch. While it could use a little TLC, it has great potential to truly shine with a few updates.

19. 2026-04-25
    listed $190,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    If you're looking for quiet living, this property on the East side of Ponchatoula may be just what you've been searching for! Situated on a full acre, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers plenty of space both inside and out, making it a great opportunity for a starter home. Located in flood zone X. This home features a functional layout with generous living space, ready for your personal touch. While it could use a little TLC, it has great potential to truly shine with a few updates.

20. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Prime Buildable Lot at the Corner of Esterbrook and Howes Cemetery Road! No Restrictions! No Flood Zone! Single Family or Duplex. Lot Next Door Also Available, Shovel Ready! Owner/Agent

21. 2022-12-05
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Prime Buildable Lot at the Corner of Esterbrook and Howes Cemetery Road! No Restrictions! No Flood Zone! Single Family or Duplex. Lot Next Door Also Available, Shovel Ready! Owner/Agent

22. 2022-11-15
    listed $32,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Prime Buildable Lot at the Corner of Esterbrook and Howes Cemetery Road! No Restrictions! No Flood Zone! Single Family or Duplex. Lot Next Door Also Available, Shovel Ready! Owner/Agent

23. 2022-11-15
    listed $32,000

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    Prime Buildable Lot at the Corner of Esterbrook and Howes Cemetery Road! No Restrictions! No Flood Zone! Single Family or Duplex. Lot Next Door Also Available, Shovel Ready! Owner/Agent

24. 2022-09-26
    price $32,000
25. 2022-08-10
    listed $32,000
26. 2022-03-29
    price $34,000
27. 2022-02-21
    listed $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $3,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $170,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-25 Listed $190,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-25 Listed $190,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-12-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GSREIN
• 2022-12-05 Pending — GSREIN
• 2022-11-15 Listed $32,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listed $32,000 GSREIN
• 2022-09-26 Price Changed $32,000 GSREIN
• 2022-08-10 Listed $32,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-03-29 Price Changed $34,000 GSREIN
• 2022-02-21 Listed $34,000 AcadianaMLS