178 Meuse Ln · Kyle, TX 78640

$198,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 3,963 sqft lot $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Montour - The family room, dining room and kitchen are arranged in a convenient open floorplan in this single-level home, offering seamless transition between spaces to help make multitasking simple. Three bedrooms complete this residence, including an owner’s suite with a private en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 3,963 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,410 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,186
• Equity at exit: $29,596

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,259
• Equity at exit: $17,162

Cash invested: $55,577 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,339/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,639

Max offer price $198,490

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $186	+0% $130	+5% $74	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $59	+0% $130	+5% $201	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $181	base $130	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,622
• Closing costs: $5,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	25d	1	0.11mi
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	45d	1	0.45mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	12d	1	0.45mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	6d	1	0.75mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	13d	1	0.92mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	6d	1	0.98mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.05mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	45d	1	1.06mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	13d	1	1.06mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	1.06mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	0d	1	1.10mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	18d	1	1.10mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	45d	1	1.12mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	16d	1	1.26mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	45d	1	1.27mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	1.28mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	1.28mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	6d	1	1.28mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	1.29mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	19d	1	1.30mi
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,399	$0.86	3d	1	1.38mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,000	$2.26	0d	92	1.39mi
364 Kenai Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,000	$1.73	6d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $198,490
3. 2026-03-17
   listed $218,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,632 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,294/yr (+$191/mo · 171.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,339
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,774
• Taxable loss: −$1,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $1,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $198,490 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $218,490 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+41.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,339 · +41.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.