Leila I Plan · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,594 sqft · Townhouse · 55 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Leila I is a beautifully designed two-level townhome featuring a single-car garage and an inviting, centrally located family room that creates an open and connected main living space. The dining room is positioned at the rear of the home, while the kitchen features a large island ideal for meal prep, casual dining, and entertaining. At Twin Oaks, the lanai is included as a standard feature, offering a comfortable outdoor living space to enjoy year-round. The Leila I maintains a consistent and thoughtfully designed layout with no alternate kitchen configuration available. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bathroom with dual vaniti

Key facts

• Two-level townhome
• Single-car garage
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• TWO-LEVEL TOWNHOME
• SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• RELAXING OUTDOOR LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Zephyrhills, FL 33541
• Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space, 1 total parking space
• Home design: New construction plan; Leila I plan
• Exterior features: Living area 1,594 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan home); Plan name: Leila I

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($415/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,493/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,311 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,435
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,163
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,990

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34338 Wynthorne Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2192	$3,200	$1.46	4d	1	0.33mi
34436 Moonflower Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2039	$2,600	$1.28	24d	1	0.40mi
7891 Stonebrook Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,250	$1.42	24d	1	0.43mi
6833 Runner Oak Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,400	$1.33	24d	1	0.47mi
33746 Astoria Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,495	$1.22	24d	1	0.50mi
7563 Ashcroft Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2082	$2,490	$1.20	12d	1	0.59mi
6601 Boulder Run Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,400	$1.14	5d	1	0.65mi
35255 Crescent Creek Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,497	$1.63	18d	1	0.93mi
34835 Redding Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	2d	1	0.95mi
34933 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,875	$1.33	15d	1	0.98mi
34885 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,029	$1.26	12d	1	1.02mi
35542 Sparrow Nest Way Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	24d	1	1.20mi
33529 Buttonweed Trl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,500	$1.77	24d	1	1.20mi
35138 Meadow Reach Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,500	$1.59	24d	1	1.22mi
7139 Steer Blade Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,300	$1.12	11d	1	1.27mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	5d	1	1.33mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	4d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,032
• After-tax cash flow: $1,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Leila I townhome in Pasadena Hills FL is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost curb appeal and make the home more inviting to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost curb appeal and make the home more inviting to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B