4611 Orange Blossom Dr · Zephyrhills South, FL 33542

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1978 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set your sights on this Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home with Spacious Florida Room and No HOA and you own the land! This beautifully maintained home offers comfort, flexibility, and the freedom of restrictions of a HOA—plus the added benefit that you own the land. Inside, you’ll find a bright and open layout featuring wood floors, ceramic tile, and new windows throughout. The living room opens to a cozy sun porch, perfect for morning coffee or quiet afternoons. A standout feature of this property is the large Florida room, creating an ideal space for entertaining or unwinding at the end of the day. You’ll also enjoy an inviting open front porch that adds to the home&rsquo

Key facts

• Partially furnished
• Hot tub
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• HOT TUB
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• NO HOA
• PARTIALLY FURNISHED
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot size about 0.15 acre; Living area approximately 1056 square feet; Partially furnished; No lease restrictions; Universal property identifier on file
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed: Cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Enclosed porch; Front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Awning(s); Paved lot; In-county location; Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Electric water heater; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $179k implies a 390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,893 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37913 Sago Palm Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$128	88
4639 Coral St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$76,000	$72	86
4711 Olive Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	6mo	$115,000	$109	85
38039 Leondias Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$170,000	$161	83
4710 Orange Blossom Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	2mo	$75,000	$74	81
4435 Autumn Palm Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	9mo	$170,000	$161	80
37931 Palmetto Palm Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-9%)	10mo	$108,000	$113	63
4904 Garden St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	10mo	$238,000	$207	56
37438 Hammond Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,141 (+8%)	5mo	$73,000	$64	50
37350 Tropical Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	964 (-9%)	3mo	$54,000	$56	47
5105 Wood St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (-9%)	8mo	$130,000	$135	39
38532 Fir Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	10mo	$63,100	$68	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,593
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-34,087
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $145	+0% $95	+5% $44	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $33	+0% $95	+5% $156	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $140	base $95	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.08mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	25d	1	0.16mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.20mi
38055 Woodgate Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	25d	1	0.26mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	25d	1	0.41mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	0.51mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	25d	1	0.58mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	25d	1	0.59mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	25d	1	0.61mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	25d	1	0.68mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	25d	1	0.78mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	25d	1	0.80mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	0.80mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	0d	1	0.90mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	25d	1	0.92mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	25d	1	1.03mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	25d	1	1.03mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	11d	1	1.04mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	0d	1	1.10mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.10mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	21d	1	1.20mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	1.20mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	1.21mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,732	$9.22	0d	1	1.41mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	1.41mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	25d	1	1.43mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	1.48mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	1.48mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	15d	1	1.49mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $179,000
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $188,000 Active
16. 1996-01-10
    soldstatus $36,500
17. 1996-01-10
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$456
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+390.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $188,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1996-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,485 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.