4268 State Hwy D · Bolivar, MO 65613

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition 1.78 ac lot $128/sqft · 21% below area Est $228k · 21% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a flip house with all the heavy lifting done? This is the one! Just needs paint and carpet. Three bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car attached garage and a 2 car detached shop . .. all on 1.78 acres just outside of Bolivar city limits. On SOUTHWEST ELECTRIC !!!!!Here's what's been done: New Metal Roof, New HVAC, New Garage Door, New 200 Amp Service, New Ground Vapor Barrier Under House, and more!Here's what's lacking: Needs paint throughout, (inside and out). Needs carpet and vinyl, (the old is already removed. )Put a little sweat equity into this property and it will be worth much more when you're done. The heat's on! Come take a look!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 1.78 acres
• New hvac

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• NEW 200 AMP SERVICE
• 1.78 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Bolivar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolivar R-I (town): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #101 of 324 in MO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,343 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,881
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -21.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 E Laird St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+13%)	3mo	$275,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-39,209
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-47,036
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65613

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $157,003

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-96	+0% $-158	+5% $-220	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-212	+0% $-158	+5% $-104	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-112	base $-158	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
740 E Forest St Bolivar, MO	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,795	$1.27	44d	1	0.65mi
725 E Vivian St Bolivar, MO	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,595	$1.12	44d	1	0.85mi
715 E Vivian St Bolivar, MO	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,595	$1.12	44d	1	0.85mi
521 E Summit St Bolivar, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	14d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Looking for a flip house with all the heavy lifting done? This is the one! Just needs paint and carpet. Three bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car attached garage and a 2 car detached shop . .. all on 1.78 acres just outside of Bolivar city limits. On SOUTHWEST ELECTRIC !!!!!Here's what's been done: New Metal Roof, New HVAC, New Garage Door, New 200 Amp Service, New Ground Vapor Barrier Under House, and more!Here's what's lacking: Needs paint throughout, (inside and out). Needs carpet and vinyl, (the old is already removed. )Put a little sweat equity into this property and it will be worth much more when you're done. The heat's on! Come take a look!

2. 2026-03-17
   price $179,900 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Looking for a flip house with all the heavy lifting done? This is the one! Just needs paint and carpet. Three bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car attached garage and a 2 car detached shop . .. all on 1.78 acres just outside of Bolivar city limits. On SOUTHWEST ELECTRIC !!!!!Here's what's been done: New Metal Roof, New HVAC, New Garage Door, New 200 Amp Service, New Ground Vapor Barrier Under House, and more!Here's what's lacking: Needs paint throughout, (inside and out). Needs carpet and vinyl, (the old is already removed. )Put a little sweat equity into this property and it will be worth much more when you're done. The heat's on! Come take a look!

3. 2026-01-12
   listed $199,900 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Looking for a flip house with all the heavy lifting done? This is the one! Just needs paint and carpet. Three bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car attached garage and a 2 car detached shop . .. all on 1.78 acres just outside of Bolivar city limits. On SOUTHWEST ELECTRIC !!!!!Here's what's been done: New Metal Roof, New HVAC, New Garage Door, New 200 Amp Service, New Ground Vapor Barrier Under House, and more!Here's what's lacking: Needs paint throughout, (inside and out). Needs carpet and vinyl, (the old is already removed. )Put a little sweat equity into this property and it will be worth much more when you're done. The heat's on! Come take a look!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations, including painting and flooring, to improve its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Major Exposed subfloor — Structural damage
• Major Paint — Needs full resurfacing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint throughout — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exposed subfloor · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Needs full resurfacing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint throughout — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905370
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,332
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4359
• State rank: #101 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bolivar

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #10664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 17,666 people
• City population: 17,666
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,666
• Household income: $59,172
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 328.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.90%
• Current HPI: 251.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $179,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-12 Listed $199,900 SOMO