47 Deer Creek Rd · Lumberton, MS 39455

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1976 0.38 ac lot $53/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

Key facts

• Private lake
• Covered back porches
• Swimming pool

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• COVERED BACK PORCHES
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE LAKE
• SWIMMING POOL
• GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.86%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,972
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -58.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Rault Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,160 (+14%)	9mo	$325,000	$150	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $58,448
• Equity at exit: $70,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $153,287
• Equity at exit: $135,902

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39455

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 300
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $99,999 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Under Contract 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

9. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

10. 2026-04-30
    price $99,999 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

11. 2026-04-30
    price $99,999 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

12. 2026-04-30
    price $115,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

13. 2026-04-06
    status Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

14. 2026-04-06
    status Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

15. 2026-03-21
    historical Active Under Contract 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

16. 2026-03-21
    status Pending 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

17. 2026-01-23
    price $135,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

18. 2026-01-23
    price $135,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

19. 2025-12-22
    price $145,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

20. 2025-12-22
    price $145,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

21. 2025-10-22
    price $155,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

22. 2025-10-22
    price $155,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

23. 2025-10-03
    listed $160,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

24. 2025-10-03
    listed $160,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This home features a spacious layout with covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed for added utility. Located within Hillsdale Resort, the property offers access to a private lake, swimming pool, and golf course. The home is in need of some TLC and is being sold as-is, where-is, presenting a great opportunity for a buyer to make it their own.

25. 2024-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,735
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$656
• After-tax cash flow: $3,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Current HPI: 202.5728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — PRCBOR
• 2026-05-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $99,999 PRCBOR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $99,999 MLSU
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $115,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — PRCBOR
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — PRCBOR
• 2026-03-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $135,000 PRCBOR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $145,000 PRCBOR
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $145,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $155,000 PRCBOR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $155,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-03 Listed $160,000 PRCBOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $160,000 MLSU
• 2024-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,558 · +35.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.