18223 Sable Tree Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$298,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2005 6,438 sqft lot $106/sqft · 7% below area Est $320k · 7% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• No carpet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED GAME ROOM
• NO CARPET
• 5 YEARS ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Barkers Branch HOA with an annual fee of $475; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (18x14); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (10x13; 11x12; 12x14)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Game room; Living room; Seller disclosure

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mayde Creek J H (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,273 students, 77% FRL); Mayde Creek H S (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,940 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 27% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,131 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,770
• List price: $298,000
• Delta: -6.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18326 Thicket Grove Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,628 (-6%)	3mo	$289,000	$110	78
3723 Rowlock Vine Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	3,043 (+9%)	2mo	$320,000	$105	73
18323 Hickory Trunnel Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,935 (+5%)	0mo	$340,000	$116	71
3826 Rowlock Vine Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	3,011 (+8%)	1mo	$289,900	$96	71
3662 Barkers Crossing Ave	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,585 (-8%)	0mo	$322,500	$125	69
3603 Barkers Crossing Ave	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,480 (-12%)	0mo	$299,000	$121	68
3234 Clipper Winds Way	0.34mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,649 (-6%)	3mo	$295,000	$111	68
3706 Siebinthaler Ln	0.17mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,043 (+9%)	3mo	$325,000	$107	66
3427 Cobblestone Creek Way	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,884 (+3%)	4mo	$399,000	$138	60
18538 Iron Lake Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,884 (+3%)	3mo	$399,000	$138	58
18526 Fawn Run Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,587 (-8%)	2mo	$339,000	$131	54
2802 Mossy Log Ct	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,158 (+13%)	3mo	$389,000	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-59,662
• Equity at exit: $66,305

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-91,500
• Equity at exit: $64,936

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 494
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,339/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $228,131

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3131 Zephyr Glen Way Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2619	$2,300	$0.88	43d	1	0.44mi
3027 Zephyr Glen Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2298	$2,200	$0.96	43d	1	0.51mi
3331 Dale Ridge Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$2,121	$0.96	22d	1	0.52mi
2923 Granite Vale Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2319	$2,350	$1.01	43d	1	1.03mi
4206 Grand Sunnyview Ln Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	4029	$3,500	$0.87	43d	1	1.25mi
19034 Village Maple Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	3142	$2,525	$0.80	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $298,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $298,000 Pending 31 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $298,000 Pending 30 DOM
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $298,000 Active 799-char remark
5. 2026-04-30
   historical
6. 2026-04-06
   price $308,000
7. 2026-03-29
   status Active
8. 2026-03-25
   historical
9. 2026-03-18
   listed $319,000 Active
10. 2019-01-25
    soldstatus
11. 2019-01-24
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

12. 2019-01-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

13. 2019-01-03
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

14. 2018-12-17
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

15. 2018-12-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

16. 2018-12-07
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

17. 2018-11-20
    price $197,000

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

18. 2018-10-17
    listed $203,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Spacious two story home with four bedrooms, formal living/dining combo, family room, game room and large kitchen/breakfast area. Did NOT flood during Harvey.

19. 2017-10-25
    historical
20. 2017-09-16
    status Active
21. 2017-09-02
    status Pending
22. 2017-08-23
    status Option Pending
23. 2017-08-15
    listed $189,500 Active
24. 2015-06-19
    historical
25. 2015-06-03
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,339 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,339 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$6,339
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$9,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $298,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $308,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-01-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-20 Price Changed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-17 Listed $203,000 HARMLS
• 2017-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-09-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-09-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-15 Listed $189,500 HARMLS
• 2015-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $185,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,339 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.