Lincoln Stone Creek Plan · North Lakes, AK 99654

$312,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily · 334 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Zillow Users please note: Prices do not include lot allowance. Visit the builder site for more details including how to build on your lot or ours! Several Floorplan Options Available! This humble ranch offers 1,228 square feet of living space. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, laundry room, and open-concept kitchen, living and dining rooms. Ceiling vaults in the living room offer sophistication to this classic plan. A walk-in-closet in the master and an oversized garage makes the Lincoln abundant in storage space. Included Features Subject to change. Prices do not include lot allowance.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 333 days

🏗️ New construction. The $312,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Finger Lake Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #31 of 156 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 43% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 892 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 164d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,009 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.09%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,000
• List price: $312,000
• Delta: -28.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4851 N Bedrock Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,203 (-2%)	8mo	$385,000	$320	84
7160 E Beechcraft Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+2%)	14mo	$354,900	$283	76
4866 N Bedrock Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+14%)	3mo	$435,000	$310	69
7293 E Aspen Ridge Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+7%)	3mo	$439,000	$334	64
7595 E Breckenridge Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,359 (+11%)	14mo	$389,000	$286	46
8137 E Sandstone Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+8%)	16mo	$419,000	$315	44
5362 N Pumice Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+14%)	20mo	$439,900	$315	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-143,611
• Equity at exit: $65,158

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-237,495
• Equity at exit: $37,784

Cash invested: $122,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,900 ($270/sqft)
• Median days on market: 334 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 892
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,292
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,555/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,823

Max offer price $288,082

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-727	-5% $-878	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-1,180	+10% $-1,331
Rent	-10% $-1,228	-5% $-1,129	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-930	+10% $-830
Rate	-1.0pp $-809	-0.5pp $-918	base $-1,029	+0.5pp $-1,142	+1.0pp $-1,258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,250
• Closing costs: $13,110
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7311 E Obsidian Loop Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,700	$2.01	164d	1	0.20mi
7311 E Obsidian Loop Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,450	$1.83	31d	1	0.20mi
4727 N Baron St Unit 2 Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	51d	1	0.38mi
6601 Skyhawk Ln Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1250	$4,200	$3.36	164d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $312,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $312,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $312,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $312,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $312,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $312,000 Active 328 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $312,000 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $312,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $312,000 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $312,000 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $312,000 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $312,000 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $312,000 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $312,000 Active 320 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $312,000 Active 319 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $312,000 Active 318 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $312,000 Active 317 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $312,000 Active 316 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $312,000 Active 315 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $312,000 Active 314 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $312,000 Active 313 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $312,000 Active 312 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $312,000 Active 311 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $312,000 Active 310 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $312,000 Active 309 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $312,000 Active 308 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $312,000 Active 307 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $312,000 Active 306 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $312,000 Active 305 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $312,000 Active 304 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $312,000 Active 303 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $312,000 Active 302 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $312,000 Active 301 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $312,000 Active 300 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $312,000 Active 299 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $312,000 Active 298 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $312,000 Active 297 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $312,000 Active 296 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $312,000 Active 295 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $312,000 Active 294 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $312,000 Active 293 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $312,000 Active 292 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $312,000 Active 291 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $312,000 Active 290 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $312,000 Active 289 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $312,000 Active 288 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $312,000 Active 287 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $312,000 Active 286 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $312,000 Active 285 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $312,000 Active 284 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,479
• − Property taxes: −$6,555
• − Insurance: −$2,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − Depreciation: −$12,713
• Taxable loss: −$20,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,140–$18,420 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Finger Lake Elementary C AK #31/156 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Colony Middle School D+ AK #9/36 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Colony High School F AK #32/61 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — North Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 126,730 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $309,500 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $304,500 Zillow