560 S Recreation Ave · Fresno, CA 93702

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1945 10,125 sqft lot Est $294k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment property, seller has 2 adjacent properties that he would like to sell together with this one: 548 S. Recreation (vacant lot) and 568 S. Recreation (multifamily). Please drive by only. .do not disturb tenants. Buyer to verify all amenities on the property.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mario G. Olmos Elementary (592 students, 99% FRL); Kings Canyon Middle (932 students, 96% FRL); Sunnyside High (math 13% / reading 47%, grade F, #715 of 1,170 statewide, top 62%, 2,879 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 77% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,396 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,748
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4752 E Kerckhoff Ave	0.22mi	3/1.8	1,116 (+2%)	7mo	$325,000	$291	77
4584 E Inyo	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-2%)	4mo	$181,000	$169	76
4731 E Laurel Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,147 (+5%)	11mo	$339,500	$296	74
555 S Sierra Vista Ave	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,168 (+7%)	10mo	$309,000	$265	63
4603 E Nevada Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,045 (-4%)	2mo	$212,500	$203	56
4935 E Kerckhoff Ave	0.57mi	3/1.8	1,000 (-8%)	2mo	$338,000	$338	54
4740 E Washington Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-1%)	11mo	$265,000	$246	52
4946 E Fillmore Ave	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,161 (+6%)	10mo	$340,000	$293	48
4596 E Huntington Ave	0.36mi	2/1.2 (-1)	952 (-13%)	10mo	$255,000	$268	48
4946 E Fillmore Ave	0.60mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,161 (+6%)	10mo	$340,000	$293	45
4864 E Nevada Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (+12%)	0mo	$330,000	$269	44
4655 E Illinois Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (+14%)	10mo	$335,000	$268	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,224
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,503
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93702

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $334	+0% $283	+5% $232	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $216	+0% $283	+5% $350	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $328	base $283	+0.5pp $236	+1.0pp $188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 S Dearing Ave Apt 101 Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1375	$2,250	$1.64	46d	1	0.13mi
429 S Backer Ave Unit 204 Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	952	$1,750	$1.84	18d	1	0.22mi
4860 E Lane Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,495	$2.02	25d	2	0.41mi
4860 E Lane Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	914	$1,495	$1.64	4d	1	0.41mi
4833 E Lane Ave #203 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$850	$0.91	46d	1	0.41mi
4845 E Lane Ave Unit 202 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	812	$1,664	$2.05	46d	1	0.44mi
4760 E Butler Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,320	$1.35	0d	8	0.67mi
5120 E Kings Canyon Rd Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,600	$1.97	0d	1	1.00mi
2075 S Hayston Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	845	$1,550	$1.83	0d	1	1.15mi
4710 E Harvey Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1372	$1,675	$1.22	23d	1	1.16mi
4530 E Thomas Ave Apt 202 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	46d	1	1.19mi
3655 E Lowe Ave Apt 103 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	23d	1	1.29mi
5218 E Lowe Ave Apt 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	3d	1	1.31mi
841 N Fine Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,500	$1.69	46d	1	1.34mi
3568 E Lowe Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	16d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $180,000 Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 210.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $3,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,875
• Household income: $47,229
• Rent vs Own: 64.4% rent · 35.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2958.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 26% Asian 10% White 7% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.81%
• Current HPI: 467.2799
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $180,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.