16124 Frost Dr · Hudson, FL 34667

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1978 8,400 sqft lot Est $283k · 10% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In the beautiful community of VIVA VILLAS you will pull up to this amazing home that offers a phenomenal asthetic with a circular pull-through driveway made of high quality pavers. As you walk into this 3 bedroom 2 bath home of 1,924 sqft you will notice how well maintained this property is, which also offers a * bonus room * and * double living room * for plenty of entertainment for all your family and guests. This home has New laminate flooring, AC 2013, Master bath and Kitchen were remodeled in 2015, Roof, 2nd bath, gutters and all outside landscape, pavers and irrigation were all done in 2017. Thats not all. .. you also have a wood-burning fireplace, granite counter tops, hardwood soft close cabinets and drawers and freshly painted! As for the exterior of the home you have a huge double backyard. The back yard has a fenced in portion specifically for dogs or any animal as well as an additional huge fenced in portion for grilling, family functions, or a fire pit all backed up to trees that provide great privacy and no backyard neighbors! This home will not last long so schedule your showing now and lets get you into a phenomenal home!

Key facts

• Large island
• Granite counter tops
• Double door entry

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• DOUBLE DOOR ENTRY
• REAL WOOD SOFT CLOSET CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Private maintained road access; Lot is landscaped, level, and paved; approx. 75 x 112 dimensions
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee of $120 (monthly equivalent $10); association approval required; Association name listed; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Driveway; Converted garage; Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (connected); Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing west; Completed condition; Slab foundation
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built with storage structures
• Exterior features: Patio; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Wood fencing; Shed(s) and exterior storage; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Wood-burning decorative fireplace in family room
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Kitchen open to family room; Living room open to dining room; Solid surface and stone counters; Solid wood cabinets; Split-bedroom floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric water heater; Inside utility / storage rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-107/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,232/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,242 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,828
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8711 Cutlass Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,954 (+2%)	11mo	$170,000	$87	70
15950 Adobe Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-6%)	10mo	$305,000	$169	68
8711 Jolly Roger Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-8%)	9mo	$260,000	$147	67
16106 Blackbeard Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,805 (-6%)	14mo	$259,900	$144	64
8229 Gulf Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	14mo	$308,000	$183	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,393
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-67,995
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,829/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $253,419

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8512 Longboat Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	17d	1	0.30mi
8316 Needles Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	12d	1	0.42mi
15902 Spyglass Ter Hudson, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$1,910	$1.47	2d	20	0.58mi
7527 Hatteras Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.28mi
7538 Mako Dr Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1686	$1,895	$1.12	24d	1	1.28mi
14945 Potterton Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1972	$2,150	$1.09	4d	1	1.28mi
7841 Akron Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,655	$1.34	3d	1	1.40mi
7436 Islander Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,150	$1.64	3d	1	1.41mi
7436 Islander Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,150	$1.64	24d	1	1.41mi
14709 Shadowwood Blvd Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,699	$1.08	4d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $255,000 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    price $255,000
13. 2026-05-01
    price $270,000
14. 2026-04-21
    price $295,000
15. 2026-04-12
    price $305,000
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $315,000 Active
17. 2021-03-19
    soldstatus $215,000
18. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus $215,000 Sold 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    In the beautiful community of VIVA VILLAS you will pull up to this amazing home that offers a phenomenal asthetic with a circular pull-through driveway made of high quality pavers. As you walk into this 3 bedroom 2 bath home of 1,924 sqft you will notice how well maintained this property is, which also offers a * bonus room * and * double living room * for plenty of entertainment for all your family and guests. This home has New laminate flooring, AC 2013, Master bath and Kitchen were remodeled in 2015, Roof, 2nd bath, gutters and all outside landscape, pavers and irrigation were all done in 2017. Thats not all. .. you also have a wood-burning fireplace, granite counter tops, hardwood soft close cabinets and drawers and freshly painted! As for the exterior of the home you have a huge double backyard. The back yard has a fenced in portion specifically for dogs or any animal as well as an additional huge fenced in portion for grilling, family functions, or a fire pit all backed up to trees that provide great privacy and no backyard neighbors! This home will not last long so schedule your showing now and lets get you into a phenomenal home!

19. 2021-01-20
    status Pending 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    In the beautiful community of VIVA VILLAS you will pull up to this amazing home that offers a phenomenal asthetic with a circular pull-through driveway made of high quality pavers. As you walk into this 3 bedroom 2 bath home of 1,924 sqft you will notice how well maintained this property is, which also offers a * bonus room * and * double living room * for plenty of entertainment for all your family and guests. This home has New laminate flooring, AC 2013, Master bath and Kitchen were remodeled in 2015, Roof, 2nd bath, gutters and all outside landscape, pavers and irrigation were all done in 2017. Thats not all. .. you also have a wood-burning fireplace, granite counter tops, hardwood soft close cabinets and drawers and freshly painted! As for the exterior of the home you have a huge double backyard. The back yard has a fenced in portion specifically for dogs or any animal as well as an additional huge fenced in portion for grilling, family functions, or a fire pit all backed up to trees that provide great privacy and no backyard neighbors! This home will not last long so schedule your showing now and lets get you into a phenomenal home!

20. 2021-01-07
    listed $224,900 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    In the beautiful community of VIVA VILLAS you will pull up to this amazing home that offers a phenomenal asthetic with a circular pull-through driveway made of high quality pavers. As you walk into this 3 bedroom 2 bath home of 1,924 sqft you will notice how well maintained this property is, which also offers a * bonus room * and * double living room * for plenty of entertainment for all your family and guests. This home has New laminate flooring, AC 2013, Master bath and Kitchen were remodeled in 2015, Roof, 2nd bath, gutters and all outside landscape, pavers and irrigation were all done in 2017. Thats not all. .. you also have a wood-burning fireplace, granite counter tops, hardwood soft close cabinets and drawers and freshly painted! As for the exterior of the home you have a huge double backyard. The back yard has a fenced in portion specifically for dogs or any animal as well as an additional huge fenced in portion for grilling, family functions, or a fire pit all backed up to trees that provide great privacy and no backyard neighbors! This home will not last long so schedule your showing now and lets get you into a phenomenal home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,829 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,829 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,829
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+13.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-12 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-07 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,829 · +37.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.