1567 Goodes Ferry Rd · South Hill, VA 23970

$165,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1910 1.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet location & easy access to Hwy 58 by-pass. Pretty hardwood floors & (2) antique mantels - 2 bdrms one bath, remodeled kitchen includes new cabinets, counter tops, flooring. New roof, siding, windows & heat pump! Move in ready - detached carport & 1.17 acres! No appointment needed - call NOW!

Key facts

• Front porch swing
• Functional layout
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRONT PORCH SWING
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has a view; Lot size approximately 1.17 acres; Zoned residential

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Residential/Vacation subtype; One story
• Construction: Above-grade finished area reported (1,070)
• Exterior features: Garden; Front porch; Storage structure on property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric oven and electric range; Refrigerator; Washer and dryer; No fireplace; Total of 6 rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-495/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#102 in VA, #3,220 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $166k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,904 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,976
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Fairview Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,036 (+9%)	4mo	$46,000	$44	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-29,489
• Equity at exit: $24,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-28,977
• Equity at exit: $14,344

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23970

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,488/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $159,930

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1120 Goodes Ferry Rd South Hill, VA	3.0	1.5	936	$1,700	$1.82	23d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $165,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   remarks 375-char remark
5. 2026-06-05
   listed $165,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$2,488
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable loss: −$3,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$800
• After-tax cash flow: $305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #3220

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, VA
• County: Mecklenburg County · 8,109 people
• City population: 8,109
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,109
• Household income: $65,170
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 37% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.95%
• Current HPI: 190.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+121.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $165,900 RVLG
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RVLG
• 2019-08-01 Listed $75,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $286 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.