438 S Allen St · Centralia, MO 65240

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1900 9,525 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking to build? This 75 x 127 lot could be just the spot! Existing dwelling will need to be removed. Great location near downtown, schools and recreational center.

Key facts

• 75 x 127 lot
• 9,525 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• 75 X 127 LOT
• LOCATION NEAR DOWNTOWN
• LOCATION NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: West-facing lot; Lot measures approximately 75 x 127 feet (0.22 acres); Zoned R-1 One-Family Dwelling; Located in CENTRALIA ORIGINAL TOWN subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($951 rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 2.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#127 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Centralia R-VI (town): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #82 of 324 in MO (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centralia Intermediate (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D-, #410 of 1,115 statewide, top 37%, 305 students, 32% FRL); Centralia High (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #51 of 521 statewide, top 11%, 406 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.41%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,418
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 S Central St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	0mo	$150,000	$149	80
224 W Bruton St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	4mo	$130,000	$130	78
506 W Singleton St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+1%)	1mo	$199,500	$189	76
112 S Columbia St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,004 (-4%)	4mo	$45,000	$45	73
445 S Rollins St	0.07mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	1mo	$167,500	$187	72
200 Reed St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,097 (+5%)	3mo	$194,799	$178	70
238 S Denton St	0.31mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$219	67
119 S Denton St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+4%)	0mo	$199,900	$183	64
614 S Rollins St	0.24mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	2mo	$35,000	$39	63
212 Alco St	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,153 (+10%)	0mo	$235,500	$204	59
760 Tidball Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,192 (+14%)	2mo	$205,000	$172	50
511 E Southgate St	0.73mi	2/2.0	952 (-9%)	1mo	$205,000	$215	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $25,259
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $61,905
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65240

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $337

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $505	-5% $495	+0% $485	+5% $475	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $448	+0% $485	+5% $523	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $494	base $485	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $35,000 Active
2. 2006-01-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$913
• − Management: −$913
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $4,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2908400
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,465
• Composite: 39.08/100
• National rank: #4048
• State rank: #82 of 324 in MO

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #7477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, MO
• City population: 8,740
• Population (ZIP): 8,740

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.18%
• Current HPI: 251.817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $35,000 CBORMLS
• 2006-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.