8427 W Glendale Ave #15 · Glendale, AZ 85305

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the Shamrock Homes all-age mobile home park. Offering approximately 728 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home features a desirable split and great room floorplan that provides both privacy and an open, inviting living area. The home includes a bright living space, well-sized bedrooms, and a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry area and an efficient layout that makes the most of the space. Outside, you'll find covered parking and room to relax or entertain. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home offers comfortable and afforda

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1999
• Listed 78 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; Land lease of $800 per month; Community playground; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate counter; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Breakfast bar; Full bathroom in the master bedroom; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Tolleson Union High School District (4288) (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #188 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Copper Canyon High School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #295 of 381 statewide, top 78%, 2,156 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.48%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $36,422
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $80,194
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85305

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6755 N 83rd Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$1,425	$2.02	1d	8	0.35mi
8102 W Lamar Rd Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	748	$1,295	$1.73	1d	6	0.48mi
8991 W Glendale Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,742	$1.89	1d	46	0.59mi
8038 W Palmaire Ave Unit a Glendale, AZ	3.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	1d	1	0.66mi
6851 N 93rd Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$2,396	$2.65	1d	45	0.85mi
7403 N 91st Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,885	$1.86	1d	14	0.86mi
6610 N 93rd Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,675	$1.80	1d	18	0.96mi
7375 N Zanjero Blvd Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$1,686	$1.73	1d	41	1.03mi
7460 N Zanjero Blvd Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,922	$2.02	2d	45	1.03mi
6770 N Sunrise Blvd Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	712	$1,626	$2.28	1d	5	1.08mi
7601 W Glendale Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,791	$1.87	1d	22	1.11mi
7020 N 75th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$950	$1.40	1d	3	1.22mi
7501 W Glenn Dr Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,099	$1.47	1d	1	1.26mi
9450 W Cabela Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,767	$1.72	1d	13	1.27mi
7111 N 75th Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	632	$1,600	$2.53	1d	6	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $64,900
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $9,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,216
• After-tax cash flow: $7,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolleson Union High School District (4288)
• NCES district ID: 0408520
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,925
• Composite: 16.41/100
• National rank: #9193
• State rank: #188 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Glendale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3235

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glendale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 294,586
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,043
• Household income: $88,167
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 832.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 31% Two or more races 23% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.07%
• Current HPI: 278.8051
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $65,000 ARMLS