25222 E Welches Rd #25 · Mount Hood Villages, OR 97067

$149,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Condo · 13 Days on market

Built 1996 $99/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mountain living in a beautiful home in Cedar Glen Estates. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Private back yard with large deck. Great master bedroom with a master bath. The den can be used as an office or bonus room. Minutes from Mt. Hood recreational areas! Space Rent $632/MO

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Seasonal creek
• Wooded greenspace

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WOODED GREENSPACE
• SEASONAL CREEK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is paved, level, secluded with trees/wooded surroundings
• Financial info: Monthly lot rent of $715; Land lease in effect (expires December 31, 2026)
• HOA & community: Park amenities include common areas, road maintenance, and sewer; Located in Cedar Glen Estates (land lease community)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential); Single-story (main level living); Owner-occupied building area
• Construction: Built in 1996; Composition roof; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Yard; Wood siding; Mountain and wooded views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Built-in refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Second bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Mini split heating and cooling; Wood stove
• Interior features: Garage door opener; Wall-to-wall carpet; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.2% in Mount Hood Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oregon Trail SD 46 (town): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #12 of 183 in OR (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Welches Elementary School (190 students, 42% FRL); Welches Middle School (89 students, 44% FRL); Sandy High School (1,440 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $150k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $149,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.51%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,010
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: 3.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,974
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $48,313
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97067

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $548	+0% $506	+5% $464	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $434	+0% $506	+5% $578	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $544	base $506	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68168 E Barons Ct Unit LB03 Welches, OR	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.23mi
68566 E Fairway Estates Rd Welches, OR	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	15d	1	0.47mi
27130 E Sleret Ln Welches, OR	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $149,500 Active 1218-char remark
2. 2019-01-17
   soldstatus $92,500 Sold 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Mountain living in a beautiful home in Cedar Glen Estates. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Private back yard with large deck. Great master bedroom with a master bath. The den can be used as an office or bonus room. Minutes from Mt. Hood recreational areas! Space Rent $632/MO

3. 2019-01-04
   status Pending 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Mountain living in a beautiful home in Cedar Glen Estates. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Private back yard with large deck. Great master bedroom with a master bath. The den can be used as an office or bonus room. Minutes from Mt. Hood recreational areas! Space Rent $632/MO

4. 2018-12-07
   listed $104,500 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Mountain living in a beautiful home in Cedar Glen Estates. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Private back yard with large deck. Great master bedroom with a master bath. The den can be used as an office or bonus room. Minutes from Mt. Hood recreational areas! Space Rent $632/MO

5. 2017-08-29
   soldstatus $65,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Enjoy the peace and quiet of Mt living in this very nice home. Private and secluded back yard with deck and low maintenance back yard. Very large and open dining, living and kitchen area. All appliances included, even the washer and dryer! Nice size master with master bath. Den could be used as an office, sewing room or even a spare bedroom. New roof, freshly painted.

6. 2017-07-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Enjoy the peace and quiet of Mt living in this very nice home. Private and secluded back yard with deck and low maintenance back yard. Very large and open dining, living and kitchen area. All appliances included, even the washer and dryer! Nice size master with master bath. Den could be used as an office, sewing room or even a spare bedroom. New roof, freshly painted.

7. 2017-07-05
   listed $69,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Enjoy the peace and quiet of Mt living in this very nice home. Private and secluded back yard with deck and low maintenance back yard. Very large and open dining, living and kitchen area. All appliances included, even the washer and dryer! Nice size master with master bath. Den could be used as an office, sewing room or even a spare bedroom. New roof, freshly painted.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,450 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $3,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$924
• After-tax cash flow: $5,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon Trail SD 46
• NCES district ID: 4110890
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,406
• Composite: 50.19/100
• National rank: #4075
• State rank: #12 of 183 in OR

Livability — Mount Hood Villages

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Hood Villages, OR
• City population: 2,285
• Population (ZIP): 2,285

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 21% Hispanic / Latino 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.81%
• Current HPI: 310.9922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $149,500 RMLS
• 2019-01-17 Sold (MLS) $92,500 RMLS
• 2019-01-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-12-07 Listed $104,500 RMLS
• 2017-08-29 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RMLS
• 2017-07-29 Pending — RMLS
• 2017-07-05 Listed $69,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,051 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.