Willow Plan · Columbia, SC 29061

$269,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,073 sqft · SingleFamily · 402 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Like its namesake, the Willow flows gracefully from one space to the next. This thoughtfully designed 2-story home offers 2,073 square feet of comfort and flexibility for modern living. From the welcoming front porch, step inside to a versatile flex room-perfect for a formal dining room, home office, playroom, or library. Just beyond, the open-concept layout expands across the back of the home, connecting the great room, dining area, and kitchen. The kitchen's central island keeps you at the heart of it all, while the patio just outside extends your living space outdoors. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite spans the full width of the home, complete with a walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 402 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Willow Plan, Hopkins, SC 29061
• Financial info: Active listing — list price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 parking spaces total
• Home design: Single-family plan (Willow)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,073 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan named Willow (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,563.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Richland 01 (urban): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #54 of 80 in SC (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Caughman Road Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #452 of 597 statewide, top 78%, 707 students, 100% FRL); Hopkins Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #213 of 229 statewide, top 94%, 493 students, 100% FRL); Lower Richland High (math 5% / reading 64%, grade F, #185 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 1,244 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,404/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 236% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 402 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,563
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Purple Heron Way	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,883 (-9%)	16mo	$247,290	$131	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,524
• Equity at exit: $40,491

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-35,022
• Equity at exit: $23,480

Cash invested: $76,038 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29061

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,424
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,073/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $271,563

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $117	+0% $23	+5% $-71	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-72	+0% $23	+5% $118	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $92	base $23	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,891
• Closing costs: $8,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 Crooked Pine Ct Columbia, SC	4.0	2.5	1775	$2,133	$1.20	20d	1	0.12mi
706 Common Widgeon WAY Hopkins, SC	4.0	2.5	2157	$2,430	$1.13	15d	1	0.19mi
440 Delahays Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,900	$1.12	15d	1	0.83mi
457 Delahays Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,000	$1.17	15d	1	0.88mi
352 Sandbach Rd Columbia, SC	4.0	2.5	1976	$2,300	$1.16	15d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 402 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 396 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,990 Active 394 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 391 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 390 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 389 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 382 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 381 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,212
• − Property taxes: −$4,073
• − Insurance: −$1,358
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − Depreciation: −$7,900
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $1,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 01
• NCES district ID: 4503360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,931
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #7335
• State rank: #54 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, SC
• County: Richland County · 389,530 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 12,538
• Household income: $60,307
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.44%
• Current HPI: 194.8986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B