12602 Blue Jay Cove Ln · Atascocita, TX 77044

$314,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2024 6,298 sqft lot Est $361k · 13% under $67/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recent-construction home is perfectly positioned on a quiet cul-de-sac just moments from the local schools. Home showcases modern finishes throughout, highlighted by nine-foot ceilings that enhance the sense of openness. Extensive laminate plank flooring flows through the main living areas, offering both durability and style. The open living, kitchen, and breakfast areas create a seamless flow ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Living room is anchored by a stunning modern accent wall featuring a floor-to-ceiling that elevates the entire space. Kitchen features upgraded cabinetry paired with sleek granite countertops and an accented tile backsplash. Central island provides additiona

Key facts

• Modern accent wall
• Upgraded cabinetry
• Modern finishes

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• MODERN FINISHES
• LAMINATE PLANK FLOORING
• MODERN ACCENT WALL
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, recreation facilities, playground and trails; association maintains common areas; Community pool, curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Built in 2024
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Wired for sound; Kitchen and dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,634 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15627 Countesswells Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,105 (-4%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	65
15826 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-0%)	4mo	$235,000	$107	63
15334 Rosehill Summit Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,883 (-14%)	1mo	$267,900	$142	63
12931 Ilderton Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,185 (-1%)	5mo	$300,000	$137	56
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$110	55
12826 Crombie Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,075 (-6%)	5mo	$315,000	$152	54
15810 Black Grouse Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (-7%)	4mo	$340,000	$166	43
15806 Black Grouse Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-10%)	5mo	$333,265	$169	43
15827 Invergelder Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-10%)	6mo	$327,040	$165	42
15831 Invergelder Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (-7%)	6mo	$335,165	$164	42
13110 Sierra National Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+9%)	5mo	$409,999	$171	40
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,474 (+12%)	4mo	$405,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-63,017
• Equity at exit: $67,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-92,642
• Equity at exit: $63,400

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$850 /mo · $10,197/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,501

Max offer price $244,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-309	+0% $-398	+5% $-487	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-516	+0% $-398	+5% $-279	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-239	-0.5pp $-318	base $-398	+0.5pp $-479	+1.0pp $-562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	6d	1	0.17mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	2d	1	0.21mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.51mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.51mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,976	$1.12	6d	1	1.02mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	1.02mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.04mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	45d	1	1.07mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	44d	1	1.31mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	11d	1	1.31mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	1.31mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	25d	1	1.42mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	6d	1	1.49mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$1,999	$1.22	2d	36	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $314,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,197 · $850/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,197 · $850/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$10,197
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,878
• − Management: −$2,878
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$9,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $314,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+226.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,197 · +960.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.