3150 Oakley Pl #27 · Union City, GA 30291

$209,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · Townhouse · 102 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 2,439 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy townhouse featuring a lovely open concept that seamlessly flows - living, dining and kitchen. Second floor has three nice size rooms and two bathrooms. This is great property for any buyer - first time or investor.

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($86/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#443 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,842/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1778% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,174 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,791
• List price: $209,500
• Delta: -1.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5070 Oakley Commons Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+1%)	8mo	$195,000	$144	89
7150 Oakley Ct #80	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+1%)	22mo	$225,000	$167	76
8330 Oakley Cir	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,436 (+7%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	75
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 62H	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,340 (0%)	1mo	$87,080	$65	69
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 50H	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,340 (0%)	2mo	$52,900	$39	69
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 54B	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,340 (0%)	3mo	$60,000	$45	67
8195 Oakley Cir	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,272 (-5%)	20mo	$223,199	$175	66
6406 Abercorn St	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (-4%)	15mo	$130,000	$102	56
6354 Shannon Pkwy Unit 32C	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,536 (+15%)	4mo	$57,000	$37	56
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 56E	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,340 (0%)	23mo	$79,900	$60	50
6354 Shannon Pkwy Unit 32F	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,536 (+15%)	16mo	$149,000	$97	47
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 48H	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,300 (-3%)	22mo	$132,000	$102	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $113,113
• Equity at exit: $188,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $329,906
• Equity at exit: $407,012

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30291

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,142/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,833

Max offer price $209,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $80	+0% $7	+5% $-65	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-66	+0% $7	+5% $80	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $60	base $7	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5150 Oakley Commons Blvd Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1375	$1,675	$1.22	25d	1	0.06mi
3285 Oakley Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	44d	1	0.07mi
6425 Oakley Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,502	$1.45	5d	18	0.13mi
6350 Oakley Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1472	$1,796	$1.22	2d	4	0.16mi
5400 Oakley Commons Blvd Union City, GA	2.0	2.0	1258	$1,257	$1.00	44d	1	0.20mi
4500 Shannon Blvd Unit 7 Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,750	$1.16	5d	1	0.22mi
6085 Mallory Rdg #32 Union City, GA	3.0	3.5	1540	$2,300	$1.49	44d	1	0.36mi
6596 Woodwell Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,215	$1.23	13d	1	0.38mi
4483 Flat Shoals Rd Union City, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	957	$1,495	$1.56	44d	1	0.42mi
4312 Smithgall Ct Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1433	$2,000	$1.40	19d	1	0.44mi
3791 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,086	$1.17	11d	1	0.44mi
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.5–3.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	0.54mi
6150 Mallory Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	11d	1	0.62mi
4128 Flat Trl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,700	$1.17	44d	1	0.63mi
3855 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1626	$1,895	$1.17	44d	1	0.67mi
3859 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,000	$1.08	6d	1	0.68mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,195	$1.22	6d	1	0.74mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.74mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,295	$1.28	25d	1	0.74mi
6225 Shenfield Ln Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1821	$2,000	$1.10	44d	1	0.76mi
5201 Summer Brooke Ct Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1484	$2,000	$1.35	2d	1	0.91mi
5205 Alexander St Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,681	$1.27	44d	1	0.91mi
5200 Alexander St Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,695	$1.39	44d	1	0.94mi
6340 Westbrook Ave Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	44d	1	1.00mi
4050 Morgan Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,750	$1.77	6d	21	1.18mi
313 Ashigan St Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,775	$1.16	22d	1	1.42mi
6120 Longino Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,835	$1.14	13d	1	1.43mi
7190 Gotland St Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	13d	1	1.44mi
7200 Grosbeak St Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1560	$1,500	$0.96	44d	1	1.44mi
306 Ashigan St Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,695	$1.09	44d	1	1.44mi
5058 Jonesboro Rd Unit E37 Union City, GA	2.0	1.5	997	$1,395	$1.40	5d	1	1.44mi
5058 Jonesboro Rd Union City, GA	2.0	1.0–1.5	997	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.44mi
6770 Buffington Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,699	$1.79	2d	24	1.46mi
5207 Dixie Lake Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,950	$1.29	44d	1	1.46mi
7000 Goodson Rd #69 Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	44d	1	1.46mi
4456 Pinscher St Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,600	$1.03	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,500 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   price $209,500 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy townhouse featuring a lovely open concept that seamlessly flows - living, dining and kitchen. Second floor has three nice size rooms and two bathrooms. This is great property for any buyer - first time or investor.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Back On Market 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy townhouse featuring a lovely open concept that seamlessly flows - living, dining and kitchen. Second floor has three nice size rooms and two bathrooms. This is great property for any buyer - first time or investor.

4. 2026-03-31
   historical 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy townhouse featuring a lovely open concept that seamlessly flows - living, dining and kitchen. Second floor has three nice size rooms and two bathrooms. This is great property for any buyer - first time or investor.

5. 2026-02-05
   listed $215,000 New 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy townhouse featuring a lovely open concept that seamlessly flows - living, dining and kitchen. Second floor has three nice size rooms and two bathrooms. This is great property for any buyer - first time or investor.

6. 2025-05-31
   historical
7. 2025-05-23
   price $217,900
8. 2025-02-18
   listed $219,900 New
9. 2024-11-30
   historical
10. 2024-11-30
    historical
11. 2024-09-10
    listed $225,000 New
12. 2024-08-20
    listed $225,000 New
13. 2023-09-12
    historical $1,975
14. 2023-08-01
    listed $1,975

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$3,142
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable loss: −$3,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse offers a good balance of modern amenities and a cozy, open concept. Minor exterior touch-ups and window screen replacement would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #21281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 25,130
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,130
• Household income: $48,184
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.98%
• Current HPI: 239.3471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+10507.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $209,500 GAMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $215,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $217,900 GAMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $219,900 GAMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2024-08-20 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2023-09-12 Rental Removed $1,975 GAMLS
• 2023-08-01 Listed for Rent $1,975 GAMLS