140 Harmony Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$108,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1997 1.70 ac lot $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an ideal starter home set on over 1.5 acres of beautiful land. This property offers a quiet setting while still keeping you close to town for everyday needs. The standout feature is the impressive detached garage, a space that truly needs to be seen to be appreciated. A great opportunity for anyone looking for space, comfort, and room to grow.

Key facts

• Over 1.5 acres
• Quiet setting
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• OVER 1.5 ACRES
• QUIET SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,760 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-7,498
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $6,359
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Terlingua Livingston, TX	2.0	1.0	500	$850	$1.70	24d	1	1.17mi
331 Terlingua Unit 331 Livingston, TX	2.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	24d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $108,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-11
   status Active
9. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-24
    listed $108,000 Active
11. 2026-02-15
    historical
12. 2026-01-19
    status Active
13. 2026-01-15
    status Pending
14. 2025-10-17
    price $108,000
15. 2025-08-16
    listed $110,000 Active
16. 2004-04-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$58/mo · 55.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $1,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2004-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,275 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.