6809 Brook Fls · Stockton, CA 95219

$525,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2001 4,578 sqft lot $266/sqft · 7% below area Est $567k · 7% under $174/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A desirable Brookeside home located in a gated community. This elegant 4-bedroom and 3 full bath single family house features exquisite finishes throughout from beautiful laminate flooring to gorgeous newly renovated kitchen areas including upgraded granite countertops. Full bathroom and bedroom downstairs for guests or in-laws. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances just installed. Newer water heater installed two years ago. Dual zone A/C systems. Newly installed flooring in all bathrooms, laundry room, and carpet on the second floor. Backyard updated landscaping with new lawn. This home is in the very popular Lincoln Unified school district and close to shopping centers, miles of trails and highway I-5. Hurry! This home will not last long.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE WINDOW
• COVERED PATIO
• LOW-MAINTENANCE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,322 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,210
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -7.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5533 Brook Falls Ct	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,972 (0%)	2mo	$510,000	$259	94
3105 Autumn Chase Cir	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,095 (+6%)	3mo	$555,000	$265	79
3863 Brook Valley Cir	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,061 (+4%)	5mo	$560,000	$272	78
6503 Pine Meadow Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,932 (-2%)	5mo	$535,000	$277	72
3593 Shadowbrook Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+7%)	2mo	$556,000	$264	69
3602 Portage Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (-7%)	2mo	$652,000	$355	62
5007 Innisbrook	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (-13%)	2mo	$500,000	$290	55
2926 Snowbrook Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-2%)	1mo	$503,000	$259	53
5522 Teal Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+3%)	6mo	$535,000	$262	47
6123 Cumberland Pl	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-8%)	3mo	$493,000	$273	45
6133 Tugboat Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (-8%)	1mo	$560,000	$310	42
4152 Round Valley Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-15%)	1mo	$455,000	$271	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $220,665
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $712,569
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,220/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$174
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-1,086

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,638

Max offer price $333,097

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	43d	1	0.26mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	43d	1	0.31mi
6031 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,200	$1.77	3d	1	0.48mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	21d	1	0.67mi
3616 Wood Duck Cir Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2302	$7,500	$3.26	23d	1	0.68mi
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	3d	1	0.97mi
2537 Plymouth Oaks Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	43d	1	1.32mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	2d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $174 · $2,088/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $525,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $535,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $535,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $535,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $535,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $535,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $535,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $535,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $535,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2021-08-25
    soldstatus $510,000 Sold 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    A desirable Brookeside home located in a gated community. This elegant 4-bedroom and 3 full bath single family house features exquisite finishes throughout from beautiful laminate flooring to gorgeous newly renovated kitchen areas including upgraded granite countertops. Full bathroom and bedroom downstairs for guests or in-laws. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances just installed. Newer water heater installed two years ago. Dual zone A/C systems. Newly installed flooring in all bathrooms, laundry room, and carpet on the second floor. Backyard updated landscaping with new lawn. This home is in the very popular Lincoln Unified school district and close to shopping centers, miles of trails and highway I-5. Hurry! This home will not last long.

16. 2021-07-22
    status Pending 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    A desirable Brookeside home located in a gated community. This elegant 4-bedroom and 3 full bath single family house features exquisite finishes throughout from beautiful laminate flooring to gorgeous newly renovated kitchen areas including upgraded granite countertops. Full bathroom and bedroom downstairs for guests or in-laws. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances just installed. Newer water heater installed two years ago. Dual zone A/C systems. Newly installed flooring in all bathrooms, laundry room, and carpet on the second floor. Backyard updated landscaping with new lawn. This home is in the very popular Lincoln Unified school district and close to shopping centers, miles of trails and highway I-5. Hurry! This home will not last long.

17. 2021-07-17
    price $489,000 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    A desirable Brookeside home located in a gated community. This elegant 4-bedroom and 3 full bath single family house features exquisite finishes throughout from beautiful laminate flooring to gorgeous newly renovated kitchen areas including upgraded granite countertops. Full bathroom and bedroom downstairs for guests or in-laws. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances just installed. Newer water heater installed two years ago. Dual zone A/C systems. Newly installed flooring in all bathrooms, laundry room, and carpet on the second floor. Backyard updated landscaping with new lawn. This home is in the very popular Lincoln Unified school district and close to shopping centers, miles of trails and highway I-5. Hurry! This home will not last long.

18. 2021-06-30
    listed $529,000 New 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    A desirable Brookeside home located in a gated community. This elegant 4-bedroom and 3 full bath single family house features exquisite finishes throughout from beautiful laminate flooring to gorgeous newly renovated kitchen areas including upgraded granite countertops. Full bathroom and bedroom downstairs for guests or in-laws. Brand-new stainless-steel appliances just installed. Newer water heater installed two years ago. Dual zone A/C systems. Newly installed flooring in all bathrooms, laundry room, and carpet on the second floor. Backyard updated landscaping with new lawn. This home is in the very popular Lincoln Unified school district and close to shopping centers, miles of trails and highway I-5. Hurry! This home will not last long.

19. 2012-07-11
    soldstatus $154,000
20. 2003-10-28
    soldstatus $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$6,220
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,133
• − Management: −$3,133
• − HOA: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$22,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2021-08-25 Sold (MLS) $510,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-07-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-07-17 Price Changed $489,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-06-30 Listed $529,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,220 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.