311 Mount Tabor Rd · Long Branch, PA 15423

$38,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1930 0.39 ac lot $22/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor alert!! 4 Bedroom single with covered front porch, forced air heat and rural location. Being sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,620 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• California Area SD (rural): math 31% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #295 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($269 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,399 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.62%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,771
• List price: $38,900
• Delta: -68.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $35,119
• Equity at exit: $17,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.58×
• Total profit: $82,613
• Equity at exit: $26,943

Cash invested: $10,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15423

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$204
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $483

Max offer price $38,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $488	+0% $477	+5% $466	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $391	-5% $434	+0% $477	+5% $519	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $486	base $477	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,725
• Closing costs: $1,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $38,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $38,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $38,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $38,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $39,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Investor alert!! 4 Bedroom single with covered front porch, forced air heat and rural location. Being sold in as-is condition.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $44,900 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Investor alert!! 4 Bedroom single with covered front porch, forced air heat and rural location. Being sold in as-is condition.

18. 2026-02-23
    listed $49,900 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Investor alert!! 4 Bedroom single with covered front porch, forced air heat and rural location. Being sold in as-is condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,179
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$861
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$1,132
• Taxable income: $5,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $4,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: California Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204710
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,621
• Composite: 37.22/100
• National rank: #4466
• State rank: #295 of 539 in PA

Livability — Long Branch

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1620
• US rank: #22171

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Branch, PA
• Population (ZIP): 1,942

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Current HPI: 144.8304
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $44,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $49,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,274 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.