20931 Malaga · Wildomar, CA 92530

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1948 7,841 sqft lot $234/sqft · 34% below area Est $565k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors and savvy buyers! 2 Bedroom 1 Bath with a Large lot. Prime location. This property is full of potential and ready for your vision. With solid bones and room to add value, this is the kind of opportunity smart buyers wait for. Walking distance to the casino and close to shopping, dining, and freeway access — location alone makes this a win. Light updates can go a long way here. Renovate, refresh, and create instant equity. Opportunities like this don’t last. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Close to dining
• Prime location

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• PRIME LOCATION
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE CASINO
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $375k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,771 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $564,966
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -33.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29448 Major League	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	11mo	$555,000	$365	58
29430 Wrigleys Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	8mo	$550,000	$362	58
29184 Tree House	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	10mo	$560,000	$368	57
29108 Sycamore	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	14mo	$555,000	$365	55
29166 Sycamore	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	6mo	$565,000	$372	55
29136 Sycamore	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	14mo	$540,000	$355	52
29183 Jacaranda	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	10mo	$559,000	$368	52
29348 Tournament	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (+9%)	6mo	$575,000	$331	50
29149 Black Oak	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	16mo	$555,000	$365	48
29195 Black Oak	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (+9%)	12mo	$570,000	$328	43
29173 Black Oak	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-5%)	20mo	$560,000	$368	41
31757 Canyon Ests	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,780 (+11%)	6mo	$580,000	$326	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-82,301
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-119,270
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92530

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $336,623

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-111	+0% $-217	+5% $-323	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-319	+0% $-217	+5% $-116	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-122	base $-217	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15329 Oak Tree Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1527	$2,500	$1.64	22d	1	0.41mi
15329 Oak Tree Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	3.0	1527	$2,500	$1.64	25d	1	0.41mi
15329 Oak Tree Dr #108 Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	3.0	1527	$2,500	$1.64	21d	1	0.42mi
29317 Allstar Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1856	$3,150	$1.70	25d	1	0.48mi
2088 E Lakeshore Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,789	$2.96	0d	7	0.73mi
1800 E Lakeshore Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1477	$2,505	$1.70	0d	2	0.87mi
1800 E Lakeshore Dr #204 Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,500	$1.56	22d	1	0.88mi
24024 Savory Way Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,000	$1.66	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-01
   price $375,000 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   Calling all investors and savvy buyers! 2 Bedroom 1 Bath with a Large lot. Prime location. This property is full of potential and ready for your vision. With solid bones and room to add value, this is the kind of opportunity smart buyers wait for. Walking distance to the casino and close to shopping, dining, and freeway access — location alone makes this a win. Light updates can go a long way here. Renovate, refresh, and create instant equity. Opportunities like this don’t last. Schedule your showing today.

2. 2026-03-11
   price $399,000 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   Calling all investors and savvy buyers! 2 Bedroom 1 Bath with a Large lot. Prime location. This property is full of potential and ready for your vision. With solid bones and room to add value, this is the kind of opportunity smart buyers wait for. Walking distance to the casino and close to shopping, dining, and freeway access — location alone makes this a win. Light updates can go a long way here. Renovate, refresh, and create instant equity. Opportunities like this don’t last. Schedule your showing today.

3. 2026-02-27
   listed $424,900 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   Calling all investors and savvy buyers! 2 Bedroom 1 Bath with a Large lot. Prime location. This property is full of potential and ready for your vision. With solid bones and room to add value, this is the kind of opportunity smart buyers wait for. Walking distance to the casino and close to shopping, dining, and freeway access — location alone makes this a win. Light updates can go a long way here. Renovate, refresh, and create instant equity. Opportunities like this don’t last. Schedule your showing today.

4. 2021-06-09
   historical
5. 2020-11-11
   price $299,000
6. 2020-10-30
   price $350,000
7. 2020-10-22
   listed $365,000 Active
8. 1985-12-30
   soldstatus $60,000
9. 1985-06-26
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,850 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,375/yr (+$115/mo · 93.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Wildomar

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #951
• US rank: #24427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildomar, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 34,438
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,768
• Household income: $86,862
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1690.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 28% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.66%
• Current HPI: 394.1705
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.76%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+525.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $424,900 CRMLS
• 2021-06-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-11-11 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-30 Price Changed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-22 Listed $365,000 CRMLS
• 1985-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,475 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.