806 3rd Ave NE · Dilworth, MN 56529

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2006 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Extremely well maintained turn key twin home in Dilworth! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is truly move-in ready with numerous updates completed over the years. Features include a brand new roof, remodeled basement bathroom, updated flooring and carpet, solid surface countertops, granite kitchen sink, insulated and sheeted garage walls, newer water heater, furnace blower motor replacement, and updated upstairs window pane. Washer and dryer are included and thoughtfully elevated for minimal bending and added convenience. The functional layout offers two entry access points on each level, providing flexibility and ease of access throughout the home. Enjoy the outdoor space with a deck with a

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Granite kitchen sink
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REMODELED BASEMENT BATHROOM
• UPDATED FLOORING
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• GRANITE KITCHEN SINK
• INSULATED GARAGE WALLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Split entry (bi-level) layout; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation; Roof replaced or installed within last 8 years; Built/finished areas include above- and below-grade living space
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Partial fencing; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (bedrooms located on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (includes a primary walk-through bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with storage space; Eat-in kitchen and combined living/dining area; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Dilworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $260k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $259,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-24,197
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,071
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56529

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,622/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $354	+0% $281	+5% $207	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $178	+0% $281	+5% $384	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $347	base $281	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1521 Keystone Cir NE Dilworth, MN	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	14d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-21
   listed $259,900 Active
3. 2012-11-13
   soldstatus $144,591

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,622 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,622 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,622
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$200
• After-tax cash flow: $3,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dilworth

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #5975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dilworth, MN
• City population: 4,664
• Population (ZIP): 4,664

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Scottish 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Arabic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.98%
• Current HPI: 187.1235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+79.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $144,591 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,622 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.