18093 Pickering Rd · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2018 Average condition 2.58 ac lot ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 18093 Pickering Rd! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is nestled on a sprawling 2.58 Acres! This home is serene country living located on a quiet street with very little traffic. This home and acreage offers ample space to reimagine and create a remarkable living space. Enjoy the tranquility of countryside living while being just a short drive from the conveniences of city life. This north side of Houston is growing fast. BRAND NEW! (March 2026) Water Well, Well Casing & Cementing, Electrical Pump, 120 Gallon Tank and New Water Line to House recently installed for your buyer! Approximate $15,000 Upgrade! Don't miss out! COME AND SEE YOUR NEW HOME TODAY!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• New water line
• Sprawling 2.58 acres

Tags

• SPRAWLING 2.58 ACRES
• SERENE COUNTRY LIVING
• QUIET STREET
• AMPLE SPACE
• NEW WATER WELL
• NEW WATER LINE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2018; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.84%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,846
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $30,816
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    status Active
15. 2026-05-15
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $180,000 Active
17. 2026-02-16
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-07
    historical
20. 2026-01-30
    status Active
21. 2026-01-21
    status Pending
22. 2026-01-18
    price $170,000
23. 2025-11-06
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2025-06-27
    historical
25. 2025-01-23
    listed $279,900 Active
26. 2025-01-22
    historical
27. 2024-06-29
    listed $289,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,676/yr (+$223/mo · 432.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$440
• After-tax cash flow: $4,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on 2.58 acres offers a serene country setting with potential for cosmetic updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — can be replaced with modern ones
• Minor bathroom fixtures — can be updated with modern ones
• Moderate exterior siding — needs repainting or minor repairs

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · can be replaced with modern ones	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · can be updated with modern ones	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · needs repainting or minor repairs	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-29 Listed $289,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.