31114 Cass River Ln · Waller, TX 77484

$237,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · Land · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 31114 Cass River Lane located in the welcoming community of Mustang Meadows! Inside, you'll be greeted by an open concept living space, light-filled interior, and thoughtful features. The kitchen highlights premium features such as Blanco Maple Silestone countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a center island, corner pantry, and sleek stainless steel appliances with a gas range. The primary suite highlights a spacious walk-in closet, walk-in shower, semi-private water closet, and a dual vanity. Enjoy other highlights such as 5 panel interior doors and a utility closet just off of the primary. Surrounded by open space and located in a strong school district, Mustang Meadows provides a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to shopping, dining, outdoor recreation, and Hwy 290-making commutes and trips into Houston quick and simple.

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Center island
• Gas range

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• 42 INCH UPPER CABINETS
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $256,670.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-795/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1877 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,207 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,670
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -7.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31107 Cass River Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-1%)	1mo	$224,990	$155	91
31127 Cass River Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-1%)	1mo	$232,060	$160	90
31006 Driggs River Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+7%)	1mo	$249,900	$160	81
31214 Williams Landing St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-4%)	1mo	$264,000	$187	72
31003 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+5%)	2mo	$274,540	$179	64
31034 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+24%)	1mo	$280,290	$153	55
30203 Sparrow Song Ln	1.20mi	4/2.0	1,582 (+8%)	1mo	$248,900	$157	51
17114 King Eider Rd	1.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-5%)	1mo	$224,900	$162	50
17138 King Eider Rd	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-5%)	3mo	$235,900	$170	48
17130 King Eider Rd	1.13mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+22%)	0mo	$249,900	$140	38
30231 Sparrow Song Ln	1.17mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+22%)	2mo	$249,900	$140	37
17219 White Peace Dr	1.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+14%)	1mo	$239,900	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-51,557
• Equity at exit: $38,270

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-72,547
• Equity at exit: $22,192

Cash invested: $71,868 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1877
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,346
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $244,961

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $6	+0% $-66	+5% $-139	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-143	+0% $-66	+5% $10	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $-1	base $-66	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,167
• Closing costs: $7,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Brohn Homes
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Sterling Association ServicesAnnual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential single-family (new construction)Faces southEntry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard with backyard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayPorchPrivate yardSubdivision settingAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenGas cooktopDishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12)Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10x10, 10x11, 10x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsSolid surface countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

HOA detail $50/mo · $600/yr

• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $237,990 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $237,990 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $237,990 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $237,990 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $237,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $237,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $237,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $237,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $237,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 42 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 41 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 40 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 39 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $237,990 Active 38 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 37 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 36 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 35 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 34 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 33 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 32 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $237,990 Active 31 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $237,990 Active 30 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $237,990 Active 29 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $237,990 Active 28 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 27 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 26 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 25 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 24 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 23 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 22 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $237,990 Active 21 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,990 Active 20 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,990 Active 19 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 18 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 17 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,990 Active 16 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 15 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 14 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 13 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 12 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 11 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,279/yr (+$273/mo · 304.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$1,283
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,467
• Taxable loss: −$5,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,340–$22,020 screening

This single-family home in Mustang Meadows, Waller, TX, is in good condition with premium features and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space. ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity upgrade — Upgrading the vanity can enhance the bathroom's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Upgrading flooring can improve the appearance and functionality of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Window treatments can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, improving both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and improve rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance of landscaping can keep the property looking well-cared for and improve both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Brohn Homes
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Sterling Association ServicesAnnual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential single-family (new construction)Faces southEntry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard with backyard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayPorchPrivate yardSubdivision settingAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenGas cooktopDishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12)Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10x10, 10x11, 10x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsSolid surface countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-09 Listed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-20 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Listed $234,990 Zillow