1507 Eastwood Rd · Natchez, MS 39120

$95,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,579 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1950 8,165 sqft lot $60/sqft · 28% below area Est $141k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL IS THIS 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME LOCATED IN MONTEBELLO SUBDIVISION. Brick home with covered parking & a shop/garage area. The house features a den, dining room, and kitchen with a breakfast area. Spacious home with approximately 1692 square feet with wood & vinyl flooring. Inside laundry. Needs some TLC and is priced in ''as is'' comdition. Conveniently located in the city limits just minutes away from grocery, medical complex & downtown Natchez.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Shop garage area
• Dining room

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• SHOP GARAGE AREA
• DEN
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST AREA
• INSIDE LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.50%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,196
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -32.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3903 Edgewood Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	10mo	$149,500	$100	79
19 Shadow Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+4%)	0mo	$129,800	$79	75
1509 Eastwood Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-7%)	11mo	$109,200	$74	74
1506 Eastwood Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	11mo	$134,500	$96	70
13 Shadow Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+2%)	11mo	$175,000	$108	69
1304 Westwood Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-13%)	3mo	$149,000	$109	58
26 Maplewood Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-14%)	15mo	$99,500	$73	53
3503 Eastbrook Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,700 (+8%)	14mo	$155,000	$91	48
901 Lindberg Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	11mo	$192,000	$107	45
4 Byrd Ct Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,679 (+6%)	16mo	$178,500	$106	44
10 Spanish Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (+14%)	14mo	$225,000	$124	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $13,614
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $49,382
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,212/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $914

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    listed $108,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL IS THIS 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME LOCATED IN MONTEBELLO SUBDIVISION. Brick home with covered parking & a shop/garage area. The house features a den, dining room, and kitchen with a breakfast area. Spacious home with approximately 1692 square feet with wood & vinyl flooring. Inside laundry. Needs some TLC and is priced in ''as is'' comdition. Conveniently located in the city limits just minutes away from grocery, medical complex & downtown Natchez.

16. 2005-02-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,212 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,212 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,212
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $4,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $108,000 MLSU
• 2005-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,212 · +25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.