9022 Madera Rd Unit A · Houston, TX 77078

$204,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,713 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 3,510 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this new construction home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining guests and hosting BBQ for your loved ones. This property offers an open floor plan, stylish finishes, kitchen with island and plenty of natural light. Perfect for easy living and entertaining! Location is unbeatable, easy access to Belway 8 East and Freeway 59 20 minutes drive to Downtown and IAH Airport. Conveniently located near shopping centers, malls and restaurants.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious backyard
• Natural light

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• NATURAL LIGHT
• EASY ACCESS TO BELWAY 8 EAST

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional parking available
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Free-standing range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (11 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (11 x 13); Second-floor primary bedroom (12 x 19)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,682/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,151 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $25,228
• Equity at exit: $86,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $88,138
• Equity at exit: $128,879

Cash invested: $57,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $204,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,248
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9218 Nyssa St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,490	$0.93	2d	1	0.25mi
9526 Balsam Ln Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1533	$1,475	$0.96	5d	1	0.48mi
9517 Madera Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,500	$0.93	43d	1	0.55mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1135	$1,244	$1.10	1d	10	0.66mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	0.71mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	0.87mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.88mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.00mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	1.05mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	1.07mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	1.07mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.10mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.10mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.11mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.11mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	18d	1	1.11mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	43d	1	1.11mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	43d	1	1.12mi
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	3d	1	1.14mi
9137 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	20d	1	1.14mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	1.15mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	1.16mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	1.16mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	1.20mi
9334 Crestview Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1899	$1,745	$0.92	5d	1	1.25mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,595	$1.21	2d	1	1.30mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	43d	1	1.32mi
8638 Doris Oaks Cir Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1777	$1,975	$1.11	43d	1	1.32mi
8523 Brock Park Blvd Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,375	$1.22	5d	1	1.35mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,990 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 505-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $204,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,751 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,871/yr (+$239/mo · 326.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$5,963
• Taxable loss: −$2,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $204,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.