138 Jackson Ave · Sloan, NY 14212

$189,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1929 3,920 sqft lot Est $208k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 2-story home offering 5 bedrooms and 1 full bath, full of potential and key updates throughout! The main level features a convenient first-floor bedroom and full bath, a bright living room highlighted by a new front window and cozy wood-burning stove, a functional kitchen, and an additional bonus room perfect for a home office, den, or playroom. Upstairs, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, a versatile loft area, and another extra room—ideal for flexible living space or storage. The full dry basement with glass block windows includes a newer hot water tank (2022), providing added peace of mind. Major mechanical updates include a new sewer line (2023),

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Newer hot water tank
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• BONUS ROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• NEWER HOT WATER TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#215 in NY, #3,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $190k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,727 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,522
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Francis Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-0%)	4mo	$165,000	$146	87
232 Boll St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+8%)	1mo	$240,000	$196	70
215 Curtiss St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (+2%)	7mo	$240,000	$207	70
232 Roland St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,048 (-8%)	3mo	$92,700	$88	68
109 Currier Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-4%)	8mo	$200,000	$184	66
250 Halstead Ave	0.40mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,147 (+1%)	10mo	$210,000	$183	62
317 Atlantic Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,095 (-3%)	3mo	$174,900	$160	61
195 Roland St	0.14mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+15%)	5mo	$155,000	$119	60
45 Wallace Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,221 (+8%)	1mo	$290,000	$238	60
169 Lackawanna Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (-2%)	10mo	$220,000	$197	56
16 Wallace Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	968 (-15%)	1mo	$151,000	$156	48
40 Hedwig Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,029 (-9%)	2mo	$162,000	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $94,627
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $285,868
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14212

• Home prices YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,393/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $165,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-86	+0% $-140	+5% $-194	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-205	+0% $-140	+5% $-75	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-91	base $-140	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	11d	1	0.27mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	18d	1	0.63mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	44d	1	0.63mi
24 Euclid Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	44d	1	0.82mi
143 Reo Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,600	$1.40	12d	1	0.86mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.12mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	4d	1	1.45mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 1997-06-27
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,393 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,393
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627000
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,810
• Composite: 30.35/100
• National rank: #6263
• State rank: #555 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sloan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #3348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sloan, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,603

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 27% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 18% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 79.80%
• Current HPI: 471.6399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+221.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 1997-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,393 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.