9391 County Road 2514 · Payne Springs, TX 75124

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1987 2.29 ac lot $123/sqft · 28% below area Est $208k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you struggling to find the perfect family home? Discover a property that seamlessly combines ample living space, pet-friendly areas, and privacy in a desirable location at an affordable price. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home addresses these needs effortlessly. Nestled on over 2.045 acres with partial fencing, this residence offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, including a spacious yard, a small workshop, and a storage shed. The open layout seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen, all bathed in natural light from oversized windows. The well-appointed kitchen, featuring abundant cabinet space, ensures a comfortable environment for cooking and gathering with loved ones, complemented by a dining nook filled with natural light. The primary suite offers ultimate relaxation, featuring an expansive bathroom, a generous closet, an oversized bathtub, and a double vanity. The home includes an in-unit laundry room, a back deck with ample natural light, and covered parking. Step outside to admire mature trees and explore the unlimited potential for gardening, creating spaces for pets, or adding an RV or second residence. With no known restrictions, your imagination can truly run free. Don't miss this opportunity; homes like this are rare. Located in Eustace ISD, Great location close to Shopping and Cedar Creek Lake.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Ample living space
• Privacy

Tags

• AMPLE LIVING SPACE
• PET FRIENDLY AREAS
• PRIVACY
• PARTIAL FENCING
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SMALL WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA); Community features: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Municipal utility district: No; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1987; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Storage; Wire fencing; Few trees; Acreage lot (about 2.29 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One-level layout; Living area with 1 living area and 1 dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,053
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -27.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Running Brook Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	15mo	$118,999	$98	62
269 E Golden Oaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	1mo	$84,900	$63	49
107 Pecos Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	19mo	$85,000	$66	48
127 Longhorn Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	17mo	$115,000	$108	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,445
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $21,537
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75124

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $149,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $159,000 Active 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    Are you struggling to find the perfect family home? Discover a property that seamlessly combines ample living space, pet-friendly areas, and privacy in a desirable location at an affordable price. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home addresses these needs effortlessly. Nestled on over 2.045 acres with partial fencing, this residence offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, including a spacious yard, a small workshop, and a storage shed. The open layout seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen, all bathed in natural light from oversized windows. The well-appointed kitchen, featuring abundant cabinet space, ensures a comfortable environment for cooking and gathering with loved ones, complemented by a dining nook filled with natural light. The primary suite offers ultimate relaxation, featuring an expansive bathroom, a generous closet, an oversized bathtub, and a double vanity. The home includes an in-unit laundry room, a back deck with ample natural light, and covered parking. Step outside to admire mature trees and explore the unlimited potential for gardening, creating spaces for pets, or adding an RV or second residence. With no known restrictions, your imagination can truly run free. Don't miss this opportunity; homes like this are rare. Located in Eustace ISD, Great location close to Shopping and Cedar Creek Lake.

19. 2026-05-11
    listed $159,000 Active 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    Are you struggling to find the perfect family home? Discover a property that seamlessly combines ample living space, pet-friendly areas, and privacy in a desirable location at an affordable price. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home addresses these needs effortlessly. Nestled on over 2.045 acres with partial fencing, this residence offers 1,216 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, including a spacious yard, a small workshop, and a storage shed. The open layout seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen, all bathed in natural light from oversized windows. The well-appointed kitchen, featuring abundant cabinet space, ensures a comfortable environment for cooking and gathering with loved ones, complemented by a dining nook filled with natural light. The primary suite offers ultimate relaxation, featuring an expansive bathroom, a generous closet, an oversized bathtub, and a double vanity. The home includes an in-unit laundry room, a back deck with ample natural light, and covered parking. Step outside to admire mature trees and explore the unlimited potential for gardening, creating spaces for pets, or adding an RV or second residence. With no known restrictions, your imagination can truly run free. Don't miss this opportunity; homes like this are rare. Located in Eustace ISD, Great location close to Shopping and Cedar Creek Lake.

20. 2020-11-23
    soldstatus
21. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    GREAT ACREAGE FOR YOUR DREAM HOME. 2.295 ACRES, CLOSE TO TOWN AND THE LAKE. MOBILES OK. MONARCH UTILITIES AVAILABLE.

22. 2020-02-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    GREAT ACREAGE FOR YOUR DREAM HOME. 2.295 ACRES, CLOSE TO TOWN AND THE LAKE. MOBILES OK. MONARCH UTILITIES AVAILABLE.

23. 2020-01-02
    listed $25,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    GREAT ACREAGE FOR YOUR DREAM HOME. 2.295 ACRES, CLOSE TO TOWN AND THE LAKE. MOBILES OK. MONARCH UTILITIES AVAILABLE.

24. 2010-04-05
    soldstatus
25. 2010-04-05
    soldstatus
26. 2010-04-02
    soldstatus
27. 2010-03-15
    historical
28. 2010-01-09
    listed $49,900
29. 1996-06-07
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,981/yr (+$165/mo · 259.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$325
• After-tax cash flow: $3,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,333
• Population (ZIP): 5,799

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.33%
• Current HPI: 218.5462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+274.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $159,000 HCBOR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2020-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-02-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-01-02 Listed $25,000 NTREIS
• 2010-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-03-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-01-09 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 1996-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.