25513 Farmers Crop Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$285,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 6,229 sqft lot $179/sqft · at area comps Est $300k · at est. $95/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW COMMUNITY! ESTIMATED COMPLETION JUNE. The Caden is one of our premier one-story floorplans featured in our Briarwood community in Elgin, Texas. With 1,595 square feet of comfortable living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed to perfectly accommodate the needs of any family. Your journey begins at the welcoming front porch, which leads you into a bright foyer. Immediately off the entryway, you’ll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full secondary bathroom, providing a private wing for children, guests, or a home office. Continuing into the heart of the home, the space opens up into a stunning open-concept design. Large windows in the living room flood the area

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Large windows
• Bright foyer

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT FOYER
• PRIVATE WING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• CHEF'S DELIGHT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Briarwood); Monthly association fee of $95.83; Association fee covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; 2 covered parking spaces (garage)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Public water (Municipal Utility District); Public sewer (Municipal Utility District); Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by D.R. Horton; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built by builder (new construction)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Patio; Back yard fencing; Front and back yard landscaping; Automatic in-ground sprinklers with rain sensor; Small trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Main level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity in at least one bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified HVAC equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Double vanity; Walk-in closets; Smart home features; Smart thermostat; Double pane ENERGY STAR windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Gas dryer hookup; ENERGY STAR qualified water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,999 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.12%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,999
• List price: $285,950
• Delta: -4.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	1mo	$299,999	$179	79
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	76
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+8%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	75
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+9%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	72
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-6%)	1mo	$254,000	$169	69
13605 Barn Chime St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+1%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	69
107 Jefferson Cv	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+6%)	4mo	$259,900	$154	60
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	3mo	$289,990	$176	59
13500 Barn Chime St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	3mo	$274,990	$167	58
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+11%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	45
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,833 (+15%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	43
19012 Speculator Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+12%)	3mo	$255,000	$142	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $125,794
• Equity at exit: $257,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $394,925
• Equity at exit: $555,538

Cash invested: $80,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,289/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $217,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-377	+0% $-475	+5% $-574	+10% $-673
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-555	+0% $-475	+5% $-396	+10% $-316
Rate	-1.0pp $-331	-0.5pp $-403	base $-475	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,488
• Closing costs: $8,578
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.46mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.53mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.55mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.55mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.58mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.63mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.65mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.65mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.65mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.67mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.70mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.71mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.72mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.73mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.76mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.77mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.77mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.81mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.83mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.85mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	0.86mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.88mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.93mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	1.01mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	1.01mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.04mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.10mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.10mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.22mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.25mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.26mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	1.29mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.29mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	1.30mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	1.32mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	1.37mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	1.42mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $285,950 1837-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $298,970 Active 1837-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,018
• − Property taxes: −$4,289
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$8,319
• Taxable loss: −$10,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $285,950 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $298,970 Unlock MLS