11283 Mobile Dr · George Mason, VA 22030

$110,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition $115/sqft · 81% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your perfect first home in the heart of Fairfax! NO INVESTORS – owner-occupants only. This charming single-level residence offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, combining comfort and convenience in an unbeatable location. Step onto the fully covered front porch, an ideal space for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout perfect for everyday living, with all kitchen appliances, a dishwasher, plus a washer and dryer included, making your move seamless. With parking spots in the driveway. Situated within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home delivers both lifestyle and accessibility. A large outdoor shed provides ample extra storage for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Enjoy a vibrant community featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and even a soccer training area, something for everyone to love. With ground rent at $1,230, this is an incredible opportunity to own an affordable, well-located home in Fairfax. Sellers are offering a one-year warranty from American Home Shield for the first year for Peace of mind. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Large outdoor shed
• Built 1981

Tags

• FULLY COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED PARKING SPOT
• LARGE OUTDOOR SHED
• ON-SITE MANAGEMENT OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#29 in VA, #725 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.14%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $580,167
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -81.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11283 Mobile Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	960 (0%)	0mo	$96,500	$101	100
4304 Andes Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,087 (+13%)	0mo	$786,000	$723	51
11039 Del Rio Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,099 (+14%)	9mo	$615,000	$560	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $76,608
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $165,672
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22030

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $1,621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,697	-5% $1,659	+0% $1,621	+5% $1,583	+10% $1,545
Rent	-10% $1,383	-5% $1,502	+0% $1,621	+5% $1,740	+10% $1,859
Rate	-1.0pp $1,676	-0.5pp $1,649	base $1,621	+0.5pp $1,592	+1.0pp $1,563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4211 Ridge Top Rd Fairfax, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$3,049	$3.29	2d	37	0.36mi
4040 Gateway Dr Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$3,205	$3.43	2d	28	0.44mi
11000 Park Rd Fairfax, VA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	25d	1	0.48mi
3887 Fairfax Ridge Rd Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,605	$2.63	2d	14	0.79mi
11345 Aristotle Dr Unit 6-113 Fairfax, VA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,600	$2.36	18d	1	0.84mi
4457 Oakdale Crescent Ct Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$3,119	$2.93	2d	42	0.86mi
11109 Littlebrook Ln Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.5	832	$2,300	$2.76	8d	1	0.89mi
11100 Cavalier Ct Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,775	$2.77	25d	1	0.96mi
11842 Federalist Way Fairfax, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,666	$2.95	2d	33	1.00mi
10805 Harvey Dr Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.0	892	$1,925	$2.16	2d	1	1.03mi
3700 Jermantown Rd Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$3,270	$3.04	2d	22	1.04mi
11727 Fairfax Woods Way Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$3,214	$3.23	2d	54	1.14mi
11909 Route 29 Fairfax, VA	4.0	2.0	840	$3,650	$4.35	6d	1	1.24mi
4245 Summit Corner Dr Fairfax, VA	3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$3,289	$3.31	5d	34	1.25mi
10608 Kitty Pozer Dr Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1091	$2,985	$2.73	2d	1	1.34mi
10608 Kitty Pozer Dr Apt E Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1181	$4,110	$3.48	2d	3	1.34mi
4125 Monument Corner Dr Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$4,469	$4.17	2d	13	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $110,000 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect first home in the heart of Fairfax! NO INVESTORS – owner-occupants only. This charming single-level residence offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, combining comfort and convenience in an unbeatable location. Step onto the fully covered front porch, an ideal space for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout perfect for everyday living, with all kitchen appliances, a dishwasher, plus a washer and dryer included, making your move seamless. With parking spots in the driveway. Situated within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home delivers both lifestyle and accessibility. A large outdoor shed provides ample extra storage for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Enjoy a vibrant community featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and even a soccer training area, something for everyone to love. With ground rent at $1,230, this is an incredible opportunity to own an affordable, well-located home in Fairfax. Sellers are offering a one-year warranty from American Home Shield for the first year for Peace of mind. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2026-04-27
   price $128,000 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect first home in the heart of Fairfax! NO INVESTORS – owner-occupants only. This charming single-level residence offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, combining comfort and convenience in an unbeatable location. Step onto the fully covered front porch, an ideal space for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout perfect for everyday living, with all kitchen appliances, a dishwasher, plus a washer and dryer included, making your move seamless. With parking spots in the driveway. Situated within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home delivers both lifestyle and accessibility. A large outdoor shed provides ample extra storage for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Enjoy a vibrant community featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and even a soccer training area, something for everyone to love. With ground rent at $1,230, this is an incredible opportunity to own an affordable, well-located home in Fairfax. Sellers are offering a one-year warranty from American Home Shield for the first year for Peace of mind. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

3. 2026-04-19
   price $139,500 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect first home in the heart of Fairfax! NO INVESTORS – owner-occupants only. This charming single-level residence offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, combining comfort and convenience in an unbeatable location. Step onto the fully covered front porch, an ideal space for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout perfect for everyday living, with all kitchen appliances, a dishwasher, plus a washer and dryer included, making your move seamless. With parking spots in the driveway. Situated within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home delivers both lifestyle and accessibility. A large outdoor shed provides ample extra storage for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Enjoy a vibrant community featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and even a soccer training area, something for everyone to love. With ground rent at $1,230, this is an incredible opportunity to own an affordable, well-located home in Fairfax. Sellers are offering a one-year warranty from American Home Shield for the first year for Peace of mind. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

4. 2026-03-20
   listed $160,000 Active 1248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1248 chars)

   Welcome to your perfect first home in the heart of Fairfax! NO INVESTORS – owner-occupants only. This charming single-level residence offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, combining comfort and convenience in an unbeatable location. Step onto the fully covered front porch, an ideal space for morning coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout perfect for everyday living, with all kitchen appliances, a dishwasher, plus a washer and dryer included, making your move seamless. With parking spots in the driveway. Situated within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home delivers both lifestyle and accessibility. A large outdoor shed provides ample extra storage for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Enjoy a vibrant community featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and even a soccer training area, something for everyone to love. With ground rent at $1,230, this is an incredible opportunity to own an affordable, well-located home in Fairfax. Sellers are offering a one-year warranty from American Home Shield for the first year for Peace of mind. Don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

5. 2024-04-17
   historical
6. 2024-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2024-03-21
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,893
• − Management: −$2,893
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $18,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,516
• After-tax cash flow: $14,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Painting exterior siding — Peeling paint
• Major Landscaping and trimming vegetation — Overgrown vegetation
• Major Painting interior walls — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and trimming vegetation — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting exterior siding · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping and trimming vegetation · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Painting interior walls · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and trimming vegetation — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — George Mason

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #725

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: George Mason, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 60,855
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 61,332
• Household income: $139,831
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1989.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 21% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.31%
• Current HPI: 297.86
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $128,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $139,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS