14127 Arbor Pines Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2019 6,592 sqft lot $11/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Under Construction; This appealing one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the living room, dining room, and covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen has a corner pantry and comes with all appliances including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave hood. The Owner’s Suite, located at the back of the house for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and large walk-in closet. Two other bedrooms at the front of the house share a second bathroom. A fourth bedroom is located just off the foyer. The laundry room, equipped with included washer and dryer, is located near the kitchen. Other quick inventory options available in this community and others nearby. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at anytime without notice or obligation.

Key facts

• Updated landscaping
• Granite countertops
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• UPDATED LANDSCAPING
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; CDD present; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Inframark/COURTNEY VLASTNIK; Monthly HOA approximately $11.05 (annual fee $132.60); HOA approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool; Association fee includes pool, escrow reserves fund, recreational facilities; Pets allowed; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northwest; Built by DR Horton (Neuville model)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Sidewalk; Landscaped yard; Trees/landscaped; Vinyl fencing; Paved lot and driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; In-wall pest system; Open floorplan with combined kitchen/family room and living/dining areas; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); Jule F Sumner High School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 3,827 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $330k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,066 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,906
• Equity at exit: $73,018

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-66,568
• Equity at exit: $71,170

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,114/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $282,785

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-173	+0% $-267	+5% $-360	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-377	+0% $-267	+5% $-156	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-183	base $-267	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11167 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2526	$3,500	$1.39	26d	1	0.11mi
11176 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,700	$1.16	6d	1	0.15mi
13924 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,545	$1.33	26d	1	0.27mi
14207 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1897	$2,350	$1.24	25d	1	0.35mi
14207 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,600	$1.37	1d	1	0.35mi
11201 Hudson Hills Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2254	$2,450	$1.09	16d	1	0.36mi
14217 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1913	$2,511	$1.31	6d	1	0.37mi
10614 Shady Branch Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2482	$2,286	$0.92	15d	1	0.48mi
14010 Hollow Leaf Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,195	$1.31	12d	1	0.55mi
11164 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,050	$1.06	26d	1	0.66mi
10805 Australian Pine Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1897	$2,350	$1.24	26d	1	0.69mi
11009 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2154	$2,800	$1.30	26d	1	0.75mi
11025 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,210	$1.24	15d	1	0.76mi
13625 Silver Charm Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1907	$2,350	$1.23	26d	1	0.77mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	1d	30	0.78mi
11510 Harlan Eddy Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2351	$2,700	$1.15	26d	1	0.80mi
10925 Subtle Trail Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,000	$1.17	26d	1	0.83mi
10610 Opus Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,999	$1.55	4d	1	0.86mi
10401 Opus Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,095	$1.56	6d	1	0.87mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,000	$1.28	0d	1	0.88mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	25d	1	0.92mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	15d	1	0.93mi
14437 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2280	$2,296	$1.01	26d	1	0.94mi
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	23d	1	0.98mi
10505 Opus Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,550	$1.31	26d	1	1.00mi
11110 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,045	$1.62	6d	1	1.02mi
11105 Cherrywood Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,110	$1.55	26d	1	1.03mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	23d	1	1.04mi
11025 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,235	$1.45	4d	1	1.07mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	6d	1	1.08mi
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	0d	20	1.08mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	14d	1	1.08mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	26d	1	1.09mi
11030 Whittney Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,295	$1.81	1d	1	1.10mi
10206 Stedfast Ct Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	2051	$2,650	$1.29	26d	1	1.11mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	6d	1	1.15mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	1d	1	1.15mi
11218 Scotchwood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,150	$1.39	16d	1	1.17mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,800	$1.21	4d	1	1.18mi
13305 Silvercreek Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,099	$1.20	6d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $329,900 Active
2. 2024-03-30
   historical $2,250
3. 2024-02-22
   listed $2,250
4. 2019-03-28
   soldstatus $199,990 Sold 1074-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1074 chars)

   Under Construction. Under Construction; This appealing one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the living room, dining room, and covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen has a corner pantry and comes with all appliances including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave hood. The Owner’s Suite, located at the back of the house for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and large walk-in closet. Two other bedrooms at the front of the house share a second bathroom. A fourth bedroom is located just off the foyer. The laundry room, equipped with included washer and dryer, is located near the kitchen. Other quick inventory options available in this community and others nearby. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at anytime without notice or obligation.

5. 2018-12-31
   status Pending 1074-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1074 chars)

   Under Construction. Under Construction; This appealing one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the living room, dining room, and covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen has a corner pantry and comes with all appliances including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave hood. The Owner’s Suite, located at the back of the house for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and large walk-in closet. Two other bedrooms at the front of the house share a second bathroom. A fourth bedroom is located just off the foyer. The laundry room, equipped with included washer and dryer, is located near the kitchen. Other quick inventory options available in this community and others nearby. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at anytime without notice or obligation.

6. 2018-12-19
   listed $199,990 Active 1074-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1074 chars)

   Under Construction. Under Construction; This appealing one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the living room, dining room, and covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen has a corner pantry and comes with all appliances including refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave hood. The Owner’s Suite, located at the back of the house for privacy, has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and large walk-in closet. Two other bedrooms at the front of the house share a second bathroom. A fourth bedroom is located just off the foyer. The laundry room, equipped with included washer and dryer, is located near the kitchen. Other quick inventory options available in this community and others nearby. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at anytime without notice or obligation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,114 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,114 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$7,114
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,679
• − Management: −$2,679
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$8,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-30 Rental Removed $2,250 BUILDIUM
• 2024-02-22 Listed for Rent $2,250 BUILDIUM
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-19 Listed $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,114 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.