3155 Lexington Ave Unit 18AB · Lake Mohegan, NY 10567

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 364 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want a comfortable summer/weekend getaway? Then check out this 3-season cottage. .. this is a SEASONAL use home open from April 15- October 15 in the Mohegan Lake area in a 40-unit community sharing 8 meticulously landscaped acres. Enter through the front lawn to a very large exterior concrete patio ideal for entertaining or that morning cup of coffee. Beyond this rustic patio enter into a classic kitchen with wooden cabinets, 24-inch range, and dine-in area. Continue to rear of home and set your sights on 2 large Bedrooms each with wood floors, a generous size closet and wood paneled walls throughout. Full bath with soaking tub completes the "main" living area. A guest quarters c

Key facts

• Guest quarters
• Onsite parking
• Community pool

Tags

• LARGE EXTERIOR CONCRETE PATIO
• CLASSIC KITCHEN
• GUEST QUARTERS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LAUNDRY FACILITY
• ONSITE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Additional annual fee of $200 for AC/increased electric

Exterior

• Parking: No carport
• Utilities: Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Propane; Sewer connected (shared septic); Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units; No central heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 410 students, 31% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Walter Panas High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 901 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 12% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.20%
• DSCR: 4.66
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $103,890
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.92×
• Total profit: $244,825
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10567

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $1,880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,947	-5% $1,914	+0% $1,880	+5% $1,846	+10% $1,812
Rent	-10% $1,624	-5% $1,752	+0% $1,880	+5% $2,008	+10% $2,135
Rate	-1.0pp $1,929	-0.5pp $1,905	base $1,880	+0.5pp $1,854	+1.0pp $1,829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3180 Lincoln Dr Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	1.0	1106	$3,300	$2.98	22d	1	0.37mi
209 New Chalet Dr Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$3,785	$3.99	2d	9	0.61mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 2 Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	2.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	2d	1	1.07mi
3213 S Shelley St Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,999	$3.00	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 359 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,000 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $98,000 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 343 DOM
15. 2025-07-23
    price $98,000
16. 2025-06-22
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,107
• − Management: −$3,107
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $22,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,358
• After-tax cash flow: $17,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 20,260

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -563.35%
• Current HPI: 219.2852
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $98,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Listed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid