16003 Cerca Blanca Dr · Mission Bend, TX 77083

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1980 6,899 sqft lot $124/sqft · 20% below area Est $250k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($378/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Mission Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,107
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16003 Cerca Blanca Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,612 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$124	99
7918 Tamayo Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,612 (0%)	2mo	$269,900	$167	92
7811 Encinita Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (0%)	1mo	$259,900	$161	86
7346 Camino Verde Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+4%)	1mo	$284,900	$171	75
15638 Schumann Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-8%)	1mo	$255,000	$172	69
15818 Alta Mar Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,777 (+10%)	3mo	$230,000	$129	62
7410 Soledad Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$159	60
15427 Evergreen Place Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-4%)	1mo	$238,000	$153	58
8514 Grand Knolls Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-7%)	2mo	$255,000	$171	58
8011 Suspiro Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,833 (+14%)	2mo	$250,000	$136	55
8506 Grand Knolls Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,406 (-13%)	3mo	$260,000	$185	47
16514 Camino Del Sol Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$269,900	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,441
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,899
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$386 /mo · $4,630/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16126 Barbarossa Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,719	$1.56	3d	1	0.21mi
7431 Navidad Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,621	$0.85	44d	1	0.43mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,975	$2.10	11d	18	0.44mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Unit 8362 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,807	$1.67	3d	1	0.45mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,815	$1.68	5d	1	0.45mi
16243 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2189	$2,295	$1.05	44d	1	0.45mi
7214 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1969	$1,900	$0.96	5d	1	0.47mi
16131 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,000	$1.12	44d	1	0.52mi
15511 Evergreen Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,786	$1.09	5d	1	0.54mi
15770 Bellaire Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,680	$1.79	12d	1	0.76mi
15306 Evergreen Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,730	$1.00	24d	1	0.84mi
7223 Londres Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1076	$1,720	$1.60	44d	1	0.88mi
7610 San Benito Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,786	$1.35	13d	1	0.96mi
7506 Tetela Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,856	$1.46	13d	1	0.98mi
6822 Santa Rita Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,510	$1.16	24d	1	1.01mi
16311 Paso Hondo Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1449	$1,723	$1.19	44d	1	1.02mi
17000 Bissonnet St Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,899	$2.00	2d	40	1.19mi
8811 FM 1464 Rd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,145	$2.21	5d	34	1.28mi
16707 Great Oaks Glen Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,110	$0.98	22d	1	1.29mi
6514 Winkleman Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2225	$2,095	$0.94	13d	1	1.33mi
16717 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,335	$2.24	3d	38	1.41mi
17802 Oakridge Canyon Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	2125	$2,100	$0.99	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

2. 2026-04-10
   status Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

3. 2026-04-09
   historical 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

4. 2026-01-15
   price $199,900 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

5. 2025-12-10
   price $213,500 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

6. 2025-10-14
   listed $223,500 Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Step into this tastefully designed home featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Enjoy the airy feel of high ceilings that enhance the sense of space and light throughout the home. A private garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This property combines comfort, functionality, and modern style—making it the perfect place to call home

7. 2017-03-14
   soldstatus
8. 2017-03-13
   soldstatus Sold 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath. spacious living room has High ceiling and Fireplace. Home is kept clean and well maintained.

9. 2017-01-24
   status Pending 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath. spacious living room has High ceiling and Fireplace. Home is kept clean and well maintained.

10. 2017-01-11
    listed $150,000 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath. spacious living room has High ceiling and Fireplace. Home is kept clean and well maintained.

11. 2005-01-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,630 · $386/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,630 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,630
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$691
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission Bend

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission Bend, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 74,843
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $213,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $223,500 HARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-11 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2005-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,630 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.