11702 Kelvin Ct · Grangerland, TX 77306

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 0.34 ac lot $162/sqft · 8% above area Est $239k · 8% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning brand-new 1,600 SF home featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, thoughtfully designed with modern elegance. The home features an open-concept living space with tray ceilings and exposed beams. Beautiful tile flooring runs throughout, offering both durability and style. The kitchen is open to the living room and features quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The living room showcases an electric fireplace set against a wood-paneled accent wall, and complemented by LED lighting throughout the home. The primary bedroom features tray ceilings with exposed beams and a luxurious en-suite bathroom with double vanities and upscale finishes. Two additional spacious bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Designed with an open layout ideal for entertaining, this home highlights quality craftsmanship in every detail. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tile flooring
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WOOD PANELED ACCENT WALL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $168,957 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,075
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: 8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-72,003
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-101,274
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $190,682

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-383	+0% $-472	+5% $-562	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-606	-5% $-539	+0% $-472	+5% $-405	+10% $-339
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-406	base $-472	+0.5pp $-539	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $265,000 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Stunning brand-new 1,600 SF home featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, thoughtfully designed with modern elegance. The home features an open-concept living space with tray ceilings and exposed beams. Beautiful tile flooring runs throughout, offering both durability and style. The kitchen is open to the living room and features quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The living room showcases an electric fireplace set against a wood-paneled accent wall, and complemented by LED lighting throughout the home. The primary bedroom features tray ceilings with exposed beams and a luxurious en-suite bathroom with double vanities and upscale finishes. Two additional spacious bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Designed with an open layout ideal for entertaining, this home highlights quality craftsmanship in every detail. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours.

16. 2025-08-25
    soldstatus Closed 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

17. 2025-08-19
    status Pending 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

18. 2025-07-21
    status Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

19. 2025-06-24
    status Pending 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

20. 2025-03-13
    status Pending 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

21. 2025-03-13
    listed $69,950 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    **PRE-DEVELOPMENT SALE. The perfect opportunity to build your dream home or move to your brand-new mobile home. This Section is expected to be completed by 3Q. Good location, short Drive to The Woodlands, Houston and Conroe. Zoned to CONROE ISD. Once the development is complete, the property will include a crushed concrete driveway and pad like dirt. Utilities will also be available upon completion to be tapped into; Electric, Water, Sewer. Walking distance from pond and park. Interested in something else? Ask us about our off-market listings! Don't miss the opportunity to own a piece of Texas!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$10,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+278.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $69,950 HARMLS