8206 Colonial Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$596,000

6 bd · None ba · — sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity for fixer upper in appreciating area. Property is located right outside of 610, just minutes from Medical Center/University's/Downtown. This area is hot with new construction.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Soaring ceilings
• Waterfall island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WATERFALL ISLAND
• CUSTOM SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• ELEGANT BACKSPLASH ACCENTS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SOARING CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Tax annual amount: $1,700 (2025)

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential Income property; Built in 2025
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Unit 1)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Includes dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, and refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/?-bath land listed at $596k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (55.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (55.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Young El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 385 students, 99% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,643/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,269 (55.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $238,120
• Equity at exit: $536,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $782,520
• Equity at exit: $1,157,897

Cash invested: $166,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,125
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,700/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-1,428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,450

Max offer price $343,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,090	-5% $-1,259	+0% $-1,428	+5% $-1,596	+10% $-1,765
Rent	-10% $-1,637	-5% $-1,532	+0% $-1,428	+5% $-1,323	+10% $-1,219
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,128	-0.5pp $-1,276	base $-1,428	+0.5pp $-1,582	+1.0pp $-1,739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,000
• Closing costs: $17,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5211 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	5.0	3.0	—	$2,250	—	18d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $596,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $596,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $596,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $596,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $596,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,700 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,907 · $909/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,207/yr (+$767/mo · 541.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,385
• − Property taxes: −$1,700
• − Insurance: −$2,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,537
• − Management: −$2,537
• − Depreciation: −$17,338
• Taxable loss: −$28,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1602.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $596,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-02-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Price Changed $29,000 HARMLS
• 2017-01-12 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,700 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.