1166 Bay Rd · Irondequoit, NY 14580

$219,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1946 0.66 ac lot Est $319k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge 4 bedroom , 2 full bath ranch! New roof, thermal windows throughout, all new drywall, paint, recessed lighting, new light fixtures, crown molding, new kitchen and baths! Great for in=law or teen suite! 2 furnaces and 2 water heaters! Huge private lot! close to all conveniences and near a bus route! All ready to move in! Offers due 8/25 at 3:00.

Key facts

• In-law suite
• First floor laundry
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ZONED HEATING
• IN-LAW SUITE
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Irondequoit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#92 in NY, #1,414 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Webster Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #184 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,970
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Helen Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+7%)	5mo	$295,500	$165	78
403 Tara Ln	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+8%)	9mo	$386,000	$214	65
1071 Cherry Hill Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (-2%)	17mo	$313,500	$191	55
449 Ridge Rd	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,623 (-3%)	8mo	$450,000	$277	52
458 Ridge Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+5%)	10mo	$255,000	$145	50
18 Yorktown Dr	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,632 (-2%)	12mo	$325,000	$199	42
66 Terrel Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-14%)	23mo	$200,000	$140	40
434 Ridge Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-5%)	20mo	$225,000	$142	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-27,006
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,020
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14580

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,217/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $218	+0% $156	+5% $94	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $64	+0% $156	+5% $248	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $212	base $156	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Willow Point Way Webster, NY	2.0	1.5	1150	$2,439	$2.12	3d	1	0.29mi
17 Windridge Dr Webster, NY	2.0	1.5	1150	$2,439	$2.12	3d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-04
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 2025-11-03
   historical
5. 2025-09-18
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2022-10-24
   soldstatus $210,000 Closed Sale or Rented 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   Huge 4 bedroom , 2 full bath ranch! New roof, thermal windows throughout, all new drywall, paint, recessed lighting, new light fixtures, crown molding, new kitchen and baths! Great for in=law or teen suite! 2 furnaces and 2 water heaters! Huge private lot! close to all conveniences and near a bus route! All ready to move in! Offers due 8/25 at 3:00.

7. 2022-10-20
   soldstatus $210,000
8. 2022-08-26
   status Pending Sale 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   Huge 4 bedroom , 2 full bath ranch! New roof, thermal windows throughout, all new drywall, paint, recessed lighting, new light fixtures, crown molding, new kitchen and baths! Great for in=law or teen suite! 2 furnaces and 2 water heaters! Huge private lot! close to all conveniences and near a bus route! All ready to move in! Offers due 8/25 at 3:00.

9. 2022-08-19
   listed $189,900 Active 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   Huge 4 bedroom , 2 full bath ranch! New roof, thermal windows throughout, all new drywall, paint, recessed lighting, new light fixtures, crown molding, new kitchen and baths! Great for in=law or teen suite! 2 furnaces and 2 water heaters! Huge private lot! close to all conveniences and near a bus route! All ready to move in! Offers due 8/25 at 3:00.

10. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $55,000
11. 2012-07-02
    soldstatus $84,500
12. 2012-06-29
    soldstatus $84,500
13. 2012-03-25
    listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,217 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,217 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,217
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$1,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $2,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630360
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,221
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1273
• State rank: #184 of 590 in NY

Livability — Irondequoit

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #1414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 74,252
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 54,180
• Household income: $98,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1325.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.52%
• Current HPI: 266.2145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+160.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-23 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $219,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $249,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-10-24 Sold (MLS) $210,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2012-06-29 Sold (MLS) $84,500 UNYREIS
• 2012-03-25 Listed $84,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,217 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.