470 Village Cir SW · Eagle Lake, FL 33880

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 465 Days on market

Built 1988 5,998 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Move-In Ready! This charming home is nestled in a vibrant 55+ community, offering an array of amenities including a community pool, tennis courts, and much more. Featuring a desirable split floorplan, the home also boasts a bright bonus room that fills the space with natural light. The open layout is perfect for entertaining, and the inviting sunroom provides a serene space to relax. In addition to a covered carport, the home also includes a spacious garage, offering ample storage and convenience. Don't miss out on this perfect blend of comfort and community!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Covered carport
• Tennis courts

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• BONUS ROOM
• SUNROOM
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,128 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Village Park HOA with a $55 monthly fee; Community pool; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Detached/carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Publicly maintained road; Lot dimensions about 60 x 100; Lot roughly 0.14 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floor plan; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Lake Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 697 students, 59% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 465 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $119k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 465 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.82%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,619
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $28,344
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,990/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $390	+0% $356	+5% $322	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $293	+0% $356	+5% $419	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $386	base $356	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	25d	1	0.25mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	5d	1	0.56mi
320 Spirit Landings Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	25d	1	1.09mi
233 Kensington View Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,975	$1.32	25d	1	1.16mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	5d	1	1.43mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	25d	1	1.43mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	16d	1	1.44mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	5d	1	1.45mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	25d	1	1.46mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 605-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $119,000 Pending 465 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 464 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 463 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 462 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 458 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 454 DOM
11. 2026-03-27
    price $119,000
12. 2025-11-10
    price $134,900
13. 2025-04-29
    price $138,500
14. 2025-03-03
    listed $140,000 Active
15. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus $77,500
16. 2003-12-30
    soldstatus $49,500
17. 2000-10-05
    soldstatus $46,000
18. 1998-07-10
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,990
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $2,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$620
• After-tax cash flow: $3,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $138,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2003-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2000-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,990 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.