509 W Fort Scott St · Butler, MO 64730

$40,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1940 0.44 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home offers a lot of square feet on an expansive lot in town and is close to everything. It is a fixer upper with great potential; appliances are optional for staying. There are timeless built-ins in the kitchen and dining area, two good sized bedrooms on the main floor as well as two more bedrooms upstairs, a large open family area and high ceilings throughout. You will also find an attached one car garage. This home is being sold "as-is" and would make a great investment opportunity or could be updated into a beautiful home to live in. Give Lynette a call to set up a private showing today!

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Timeless built-ins
• High ceilings

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• TIMELESS BUILT-INS
• LARGE OPEN FAMILY AREA
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($801 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.2% in Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#362 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Butler R-V (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 324 in MO (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Bates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bates County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.15%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $45,651
• Equity at exit: $36,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.33×
• Total profit: $115,669
• Equity at exit: $77,711

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64730

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $801 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $327

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $386	+0% $375	+5% $363	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $343	+0% $375	+5% $406	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $395	-0.5pp $385	base $375	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
PA2 Butler, MO	3.0	2.0	1447	$801	$0.55	44d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-29
   soldstatus
2. 2025-11-29
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-25
   price $40,000
4. 2025-11-13
   listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$769
• − Management: −$769
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$982
• After-tax cash flow: $3,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butler R-V
• NCES district ID: 2906360
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,896
• Composite: 28.63/100
• National rank: #6705
• State rank: #233 of 324 in MO

Livability — Butler

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #15944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butler, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,550

Population outlook (Bates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,295 people
• By 2030: 14,644 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 13,282 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 11,944 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 9,442 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 7,372 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bates

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.7% · R 80.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+54.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.64%
• Current HPI: 251.7196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-29 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $40,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $49,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $380 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.