17823 S Cypress Villas Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$219,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1981 8,132 sqft lot $105/sqft · 11% below area Est $246k · 11% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,132 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Member of Olde Cypress Mill association; Annual association fee of $582

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benfer El (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 795 students, 66% FRL); Strack Int (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,196 students, 49% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $220k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,954 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,700
• List price: $219,500
• Delta: -10.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 Fireside Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,048 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$125	73
4310 Shady Pine Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,106 (+1%)	4mo	$275,000	$131	72
5207 Woodville Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,205 (+6%)	3mo	$310,000	$141	64
18018 Cypress Spring Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,172 (+4%)	2mo	$255,000	$117	52
18010 Cypress Spring Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+3%)	3mo	$265,000	$124	52
4726 Marywood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-11%)	2mo	$252,000	$137	52
5203 Woodville Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,384 (+14%)	3mo	$335,000	$141	51
4043 Coltwood Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-10%)	3mo	$239,900	$128	49
5306 Glenmere Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,364 (+14%)	3mo	$297,000	$126	49
4070 Coltwood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,858 (-11%)	6mo	$260,000	$140	48
4715 Broken Elm Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,858 (-11%)	4mo	$254,999	$137	47
4023 Oxhill Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$107	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,251
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-48,615
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,108/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $219,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $150	+0% $88	+5% $26	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $2	+0% $88	+5% $174	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $144	base $88	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4822 Lost Oak Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$2,200	$1.29	45d	1	0.47mi
18011 Tall Cypress Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2824	$3,120	$1.10	9d	1	0.51mi
17734 Moss Point Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2734	$2,470	$0.90	17d	1	0.72mi
18620 Louetta Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1930	$1,995	$1.03	14d	3	0.96mi
3906 Postwood Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2211	$2,045	$0.92	9d	1	0.98mi
3626 Blue Cypress Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1813	$1,390	$0.77	26d	1	1.14mi
16415 Lapis River Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,500	$0.89	45d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $219,500 Active
3. 2005-05-17
   soldstatus
4. 2001-05-08
   soldstatus
5. 2001-05-01
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,108 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,108 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$4,108
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$2,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $1,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+131.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2005-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,108 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.