10206 Ashville Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1955 6,028 sqft lot Est $195k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the Sunnyside Medial District area, this home with three bedrooms, one full bathroom, den, and utility room is waiting for your personal touch. Gated for privacy, with ample front and backyard space, this cozy property is full of potential. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make it your own. Sellers are looking forward to receiving respectable offers. The listing agent is related to the seller by marriage. Written Offers only and no verbal offers Foundation Work has been completed by Olshan Foundation Company

Key facts

• Full of potential
• Gated for privacy
• 6,028 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED FOR PRIVACY
• AMPLE FRONT AND BACKYARD SPACE
• FULL OF POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1955
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (First level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level); Bedroom (First level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,118
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,244 (-2%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	84
10014 Sierra Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (-2%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	78
3034 Corksie St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-3%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	72
10818 Carlton Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-2%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	70
9506 Sierra Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+4%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	63
3018 Elpyco St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-4%)	2mo	$187,000	$154	61
11018 Long Gate	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-2%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	61
10807 Segrest Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,313 (+4%)	2mo	$220,000	$168	60
10611 Leitrim Way	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-13%)	1mo	$159,900	$145	50
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+9%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	49
10204 Penryn Forest Trl	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+9%)	1mo	$284,990	$206	47
10108 Penryn Forest Trl	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+9%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $109,819
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $300,854
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,201/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $636	+0% $601	+5% $566	+10% $530
Rent	-10% $452	-5% $526	+0% $601	+5% $676	+10% $750
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $633	base $601	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $536

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	46d	1	0.27mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	46d	1	0.27mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.63mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	0.63mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	46d	1	0.65mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.70mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	23d	1	0.83mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	1d	3	0.87mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	5d	2	1.05mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	46d	1	1.14mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	46d	1	1.16mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	1.22mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	46d	1	1.31mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.36mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	15d	1	1.40mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	17d	1	1.41mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	46d	1	1.43mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	1.43mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $125,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   remarks 531-char remark
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,201
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $5,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,201 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.